UNS
Since his appointment as Deputy Crown Prince in 2015, Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) has steadily consolidated authority within Saudi Arabia before assuming the Crown Prince role in 2017. Under his leadership, the Kingdom undertook a series of strategic initiatives, including a military campaign against the Houthis in Yemen, a blockade of Qatar, and the temporary detention of Lebanon’s Prime Minister. These measures formed part of a broader strategy to curb Iranian influence in the region.
During this period, Mohammed bin Zayed, President of the United Arab Emirates, emerged as a close ally. Analysts have described him as a younger, more impulsive counterpart: “Intelligent, energetic, and eager to confront adversaries.”
Collapse of the Saudi-Emirati Alliance
In recent months, the previously robust alliance between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi has fractured, particularly over Yemen and Sudan, amid rising economic competition. Saudi Arabia views the UAE as excessively aligned with Israel, while Abu Dhabi is increasingly wary of Saudi Arabia’s expanding regional influence.
The first major confrontation occurred last December when UAE-backed forces, particularly the Southern Transitional Council (STC) in Yemen, advanced into two eastern Yemeni governorates. The move disrupted a fragile balance of power and was widely interpreted as a direct provocation against Riyadh, coinciding with the Gulf Cooperation Council summit in Bahrain.
Military and Political Background
Saudi Arabia and the UAE entered Yemen in March 2015 as a coalition against the Houthis, considered proxies of Iran. Initially coordinated, the coalition began to diverge as Saudi forces encountered setbacks, while the UAE successfully reclaimed territory from the Houthis and al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP).
In 2019, the UAE partially redeployed its forces to support militias controlling ports and coastal regions, contributing to a relatively stable ceasefire in 2022. Consequently, the STC’s advance in November took Saudi strategists by surprise.
Escalating Regional and Economic Rivalry
Between 2015 and 2019, bin Salman and bin Zayed were largely aligned in regional interventions following the Arab Spring, including the 2017 blockade of Qatar. However, the 2019 attacks on Saudi oil infrastructure, coupled with limited U.S. response, prompted Riyadh to reassess its policies, while Abu Dhabi continued its assertive course.
The rivalry extends to economics. Saudi Arabia struggles to attract foreign investment, whereas the UAE excels in tourism, entertainment, and technology. Competition intensified as both nations sought favor with the U.S. administration through direct investment, further heightening regional tensions.
UAE Intervention in Sudan
The UAE’s continued support for Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces, despite documented human rights violations, reflects an assertive foreign policy aimed at leveraging weak state institutions, expanding regional influence, and securing strategic and economic interests.
Ideology and Pragmatic Interests
UAE interventions in Libya and parts of Africa combine ideological and economic objectives, seeking to limit Islamist influence and support authoritarian leaders who can secure access to ports and resources. By contrast, Saudi Arabia adopts a more pragmatic approach, weighing domestic and religious considerations in its regional strategies.
Diverging Leadership Styles
Initially, the leaders’ personal and political compatibility strengthened their alliance. Over time, however, differences in age, experience, and decision-making approaches have led to strategic divergences. Bin Zayed, older and methodical, favors calculated risk-taking, whereas bin Salman acts swiftly and decisively, factoring in the sensitivity of both domestic and international decisions, including normalization with Israel.
Impact of International Events on Saudi Policy
Events such as the 2018 murder of Jamal Khashoggi and the 2019 Iranian attacks on Saudi oil infrastructure have prompted a recalibration of bin Salman’s approach, making him less aggressive and more cautious in international dealings, while continuing to pursue Saudi Arabia’s economic and regional ambitions.
Analytical Conclusion
The ongoing Saudi-UAE conflict reflects a complex interplay of economic interests, military strategy, and personal rivalry for regional influence. Shifts in Gulf alliance dynamics pose continuing challenges to Middle East stability and are reshaping the regional balance of power.
Key Points:
Yemen and Sudan remain primary arenas of tension.
Economic competition amplifies political and military disagreements.
Divergent leadership strategies and personal orientations deepen the crisis.
The conflict is likely to persist in the medium term, affecting regional security and international investment.
