Road from 18th to  28th Amendment: Power, Politics, Future of Federation

By
Kanwar Muhammad Dilshad
It has now been established that the initial draft of the 27th Constitutional Amendment contained several clauses that were highly significant for national interests, but due to reservations expressed by the leadership of the Pakistan Peoples Party, these clauses could not be included in the final draft. It is reported that after the 27th Amendment, work has now begun on the 28th Amendment, which aims to remove certain clauses introduced in the 18th Amendment that are believed to have weakened the federation.
The 18th Amendment was apparently introduced under the banner of constitutional reform. For this purpose, a 22-member Constitutional Reforms Committee was formed, headed by Raza Rabbani, with representation from all parliamentary parties. However, very few circles know that there were certain international factors influencing this process. General Pervez Musharraf had been given assurances by the United States under the NRO that he would continue as president after the elections, and among those guaranteeing this arrangement was the then Army Chief, General Ashfaq Pervez Kayani. But the situation changed drastically after the assassination of Mohtarma Benazir Bhutto on 27 December 2007, and Asif Ali Zardari took over the leadership of the PPP. The general elections of 18 February 2008 completely altered the political landscape. Asif Ali Zardari joined hands with Mian Nawaz Sharif and forced General Pervez Musharraf out of the presidency. Musharraf resigned on Kayani’s advice even though Zardari and Nawaz Sharif did not have the two-thirds majority in Parliament required for his impeachment. When Asif Ali Zardari was elected President on 8 September 2008, work on the 18th Amendment began immediately.
Zardari had invited Afghan President Hamid Karzai to his oath-taking ceremony. I myself was present at the event. Karzai was whispering to Zardari and consulting notes he had written. PTV’s then-chairman Dr. Shahid Masood was standing directly behind Karzai during the ceremony. It is said that Karzai urged President Zardari to dismantle what remained of Pervez Musharraf’s legacy, annul the 17th Amendment, empower provinces under the banner of constitutional reforms, and move Pakistan towards a structure resembling semi-autonomous states—similar to the Soviet model. It is surprising how someone like Hamid Karzai, known for his anti-Pakistan rhetoric, was granted clearance to attend this event. To my knowledge, Hussain Haqqani played a key role in drafting the 18th Amendment. He finalized the draft while being based in Dubai.
After the 2008 elections, Musharraf had already lost his authority; his downfall had begun, and General Kayani had distanced himself from him. Earlier, Musharraf had amended the Constitution to make the dissolution of Parliament subject to approval by the Supreme Court of Pakistan, meaning he needed Supreme Court support to exercise Article 58(2)(b). Musharraf once told me personally that he was closely observing the new government’s activities and had serious reservations, but by then he had lost almost all public support. When he resigned in an address to the nation, he included a lengthy charge sheet against the government—expressing concern over the deteriorating value of the rupee, which had fallen by nearly 50 percent. The very dollar that cost 60 rupees during Musharraf’s era had skyrocketed to 90 rupees within the first few months of the PPP government.
Meanwhile, aided by Nawaz Sharif, Zardari forced Musharraf out under the pretext of impeachment and began working on the 18th Amendment, which took effect on 10 April 2010—an amendment that many consider a step toward confederation rather than strengthening the federation.
After the 1985 elections, Raza Rabbani, Mumtaz Bhutto, and Abdul Hafeez Pirzada founded a political party under the name “Confederation Forum.” Its manifesto closely resembled what was later incorporated into the 18th Amendment. The real intellectual source of the 18th Amendment was indeed the Confederation Forum. When this manifesto emerged, the late renowned journalist Irshad Haqqani wrote that Pakistan was nowhere to be found in it. According to informed circles, if the 28th Amendment materializes, significant changes may occur at the federal level, and Mian Nawaz Sharif could become prime minister for a fourth time. If that happens, Bilawal Bhutto will likely be the Leader of the Opposition; however, Asif Ali Zardari’s political future is still being deliberated. The 28th Amendment is expected to include clauses whose effects may be felt for many years.
Speaking of the by-elections held on 23 November, the PML-N’s victory on six National Assembly and six provincial assembly seats has reduced its dependency on the PPP even further. Before the by-elections, the PML-N held 127 seats in the 336-member National Assembly; it now has 133. Adding MQM’s 22 seats, PML-Q’s five, Istehkam-e-Pakistan Party’s four, Muslim League-Zia’s one, Balochistan National Party’s one, and four independents, the total number of PML-N and its allies reaches 170—while 169 seats are required for a simple majority.
The most significant aspect of the recent by-elections is the extremely low voter turnout. The opposition has adopted an undemocratic tradition of boycotting elections. Benazir Bhutto boycotted the non-party elections of 1985, and their effects are still visible today. Similarly, the MQM boycotted the 1993 National Assembly elections in Karachi, where candidates who typically received over 100,000 votes were replaced by those winning only 9,000, 12,000, or 15,000 votes—but electoral history never accepted those results. Shortly thereafter, on 17 April 1993, President Ghulam Ishaq Khan dissolved the National Assembly and dismissed Nawaz Sharif’s government due to political and electoral instability. Although the Supreme Court restored the government on 26 May 1993, the political crisis escalated so dramatically that on 18 July 1993, under the formula of Army Chief General Waheed Kakar and Lt. Gen. Ghulam Muhammad, the Sharif government was dissolved again, and fresh elections were held on 24 October 1993. Now, even though the winning candidates from the 23 November 2025 by-elections have entered the assemblies, the negligible voter turnout has cast a serious question mark over their political legitimacy.
It is reported that for the Senate seat left vacant after the death of Irfan Siddiqui, the names of Hussain Nawaz, Junaid Safdar, and Maryam Nawaz’s son-in-law are under consideration. This suggests that, as usual, hereditary politics will once again be prioritized, while loyal party workers will continue organizing rallies from behind the scenes.