By Dr Lubna Farah
The strategic landscape of the Middle East is undergoing a profound transformation, and one of its most consequential shifts is the rapid deterioration of relations between Pakistan and the United Arab Emirates. Once regarded as close and dependable partners, Islamabad and Abu Dhabi now find themselves on opposing sides of an emerging regional realignment.
At the center of this rupture lies Pakistan’s growing role as a regional mediator — a position that has elevated its diplomatic importance while simultaneously straining its traditional alliances within the Gulf.
The Kugelman Assessment: Neutrality Comes at a Cost
According to Michael Kugelman, Pakistan’s balancing strategy has fundamentally altered its relationship with the UAE. He argues that Islamabad’s attempt to maintain neutrality amid rising regional tensions has unintentionally alienated Abu Dhabi.
Pakistan’s deepening military coordination with Saudi Arabia, combined with its diplomatic outreach toward Iran, has created suspicion within the Emirati leadership. What Islamabad views as strategic mediation, Abu Dhabi increasingly interprets as a challenge to its security priorities.
The Roots of the Crisis
Several developments over the past year accelerated the decline in UAE–Pakistan ties.
1. The Riyadh Defense Pact
In September 2025, Pakistan significantly expanded its military presence in Saudi Arabia by deploying thousands of troops alongside fighter aircraft. While Islamabad described the move as a stabilizing security arrangement, Emirati officials reportedly viewed it as evidence that Pakistan had tilted decisively toward Riyadh in the evolving Gulf power struggle.
For Abu Dhabi, the deployment altered the regional balance and reinforced fears of exclusion from major strategic decisions.
2. Pakistan’s Strategic Hesitation
Tensions escalated further during recent Iranian retaliatory strikes on Gulf targets. The UAE expected stronger military backing from Pakistan, particularly given the long history of defense cooperation between the two countries.
Instead, Islamabad adopted a cautious approach, avoiding direct involvement and emphasizing de-escalation. This restraint was welcomed by some regional actors, but in Abu Dhabi it was perceived as a failure of strategic commitment.
The episode damaged Pakistan’s image as a reliable security partner in Emirati eyes.
3. Economic Pressure and the “Debt Weapon”
The sharpest signal of Emirati dissatisfaction came through economic channels.
As Pakistan intensified efforts to mediate between Saudi Arabia and Iran, the UAE reportedly demanded repayment of approximately $3.5 billion in financial support previously extended to Islamabad. Analysts interpreted the move not merely as a financial decision, but as a form of political leverage designed to pressure Pakistan into recalibrating its regional posture.
The debt issue has since become symbolic of the wider breakdown in trust.
The Emerging Gulf Divide
The broader regional crisis with Iran has exposed a widening strategic divide within the Gulf itself.
The UAE Position
Abu Dhabi favors a hardline approach focused on deterrence and retaliation. Emirati policymakers argue that negotiations alone cannot contain Iran’s regional influence or military capabilities.
The Saudi–Pakistani Position
Saudi Arabia, supported by Pakistan, has instead pursued diplomatic engagement and crisis management. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has reportedly endorsed a Pakistani-led mediation framework aimed at reducing regional escalation.
In a particularly significant move, Riyadh pledged financial assistance to Pakistan that could help offset the Emirati debt pressure — a gesture widely interpreted as Saudi backing for Islamabad’s diplomatic strategy.
The I2U2 Dynamic and India’s Expanding Role
As tensions with Pakistan intensified, the UAE accelerated its strategic alignment with the I2U2 framework involving India, Israel, the UAE, and the United States.
This shift has opened new geopolitical and economic pathways that increasingly bypass Pakistan.
India’s Strategic Opportunity
Indian External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar recently strengthened ties with Abu Dhabi through expanded defense and economic discussions. India is positioning itself as a long-term strategic partner capable of complementing Emirati security ambitions and technological modernization.
For Pakistan, this growing India–UAE partnership represents both a diplomatic and strategic challenge.
The IMEC Corridor
Islamabad is also closely watching the development of the India-Middle East-Europe Corridor (IMEC), which many Pakistani analysts believe could reduce Pakistan’s long-term relevance as a regional trade and transit hub.
The corridor symbolizes a broader regional shift toward alternative economic alignments that do not rely on Pakistan’s geography.
A New Regional Alignment
The current Middle Eastern landscape increasingly reflects two competing strategic camps.
Mediating Bloc
Deterrence Bloc
Saudi Arabia + Pakistan
UAE + India
Supported by Qatar, Turkey, Egypt
Supported by Israel and I2U2 partners
Focus on negotiation and de-escalation
Focus on deterrence and pressure
Seeks managed engagement with Iran
Seeks stronger containment of Iran
While these alignments remain fluid, they reflect diverging visions for the future security architecture of the region.
