By Dr Lubna Farah
The conflict in Yemen has entered a potentially decisive new phase, with fighting intensifying across western Taiz and along the Red Sea coast as Houthi forces seek to expand their military position towards the strategic Bab al-Mandab Strait.
What was once largely viewed as a frozen Yemeni conflict is increasingly becoming intertwined with the wider regional confrontation involving Iran, Saudi Arabia and the security of the Red Sea’s maritime corridor.
Recent fighting has centred on areas west and south-west of Taiz, including Maqbanah and other frontline positions leading towards the coastal city of Mokha. Yemeni government forces and allied formations have launched counter-attacks while the Houthis have employed ballistic missiles, drones, artillery and ground forces.
The escalation has been accompanied by growing concern over the Houthis’ intentions towards Bab al-Mandab, one of the world’s most strategically important maritime chokepoints.
‘One decisive battle’ against the Houthis
Yemeni Ambassador to the United Kingdom Yaseen Saeed Noman has described the confrontation in increasingly existential terms.
Noman has argued that there is effectively no alternative to defeating the Houthis in western Taiz, saying that Maqbanah should become a graveyard for what he described as the group’s “malicious military project”.
His remarks reflect a broader argument among sections of Yemen’s anti-Houthi political and military camp: that internal divisions must give way to a common effort against the Houthi movement.
The latest fighting, however, cannot be understood solely through the lens of Yemen’s internal political conflict.
The geography of the battlefield has transformed the western Taiz front into a strategic contest over access to the Red Sea.
Why Maqbanah and western Taiz matter
Maqbanah occupies strategically important terrain west of Taiz. Control of the surrounding high ground and road network can affect the movement and supply of forces operating between Taiz and the Red Sea coast.
Recent reporting has confirmed the intensity of the fighting in Maqbanah, al-Kadha and other western Taiz sectors, with Houthi forces using missiles, drones and artillery while government and allied forces have attempted to recover positions.
The military significance of the area goes beyond individual villages or military positions.
A sustained Houthi advance towards the coast could create a land corridor increasing pressure on Mokha, Dhubab and ultimately the approaches to Bab al-Mandab.
That is why the battle for western Taiz is increasingly being viewed as a potential gateway to a much larger confrontation.
Bab al-Mandab: the strategic prize
Bab al-Mandab connects the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden and the wider Indian Ocean. Any force capable of threatening shipping through the strait would acquire considerable strategic leverage over international trade and energy transportation.
The Houthis have already demonstrated their ability to disrupt commercial shipping in the Red Sea.
Yemeni officials and regional security sources have repeatedly warned that a stronger Houthi presence near Bab al-Mandab could give the movement an additional mechanism for exerting pressure on Saudi Arabia and international shipping.
In August, Yemeni officials warned that the Houthis were seeking to establish a foothold along the strait. AFP reporting at the time also cited Houthi and government-linked sources describing preparations and troop movements along the western coast.
The significance of the current offensive therefore lies not merely in the capture or loss of individual positions, but in whether the Houthis can establish a durable military presence close enough to the strait to threaten maritime traffic.
Mokha changes the equation
The reported Houthi seizure of Mokha has dramatically raised the stakes.
Reuters reported that the capture of the Red Sea port gave the Houthis greater leverage over Bab al-Mandab, while government forces and allied formations were reported to be relocating towards Dhubab, directly on the strait.
If sustained, such a development could transform the military balance along Yemen’s western coast.
Mokha is not Bab al-Mandab itself, but control of the coastal approaches creates a potential platform from which pressure can be extended southwards.
The decisive terrain remains around Dhubab and the approaches to Perim Island, whose position in the strait gives the area exceptional strategic importance.
Is this still a Yemeni war?
For many Yemenis, the immediate confrontation remains a struggle over the future of the Yemeni state.
But the battlefield is increasingly being shaped by regional calculations.
The Houthis are backed by Iran, although the precise degree of Iranian operational direction behind individual Houthi offensives cannot automatically be established from battlefield developments alone.
The strategic logic, however, is clear.
Iran and its regional partners have historically sought leverage through geographically positioned armed groups capable of threatening critical transport corridors. The Red Sea therefore offers Tehran and the Houthis an important potential pressure point at a time when the wider Middle East is experiencing simultaneous crises around energy security and maritime transportation.
This does not necessarily mean that every Houthi military decision is ordered directly from Tehran. It does mean that the strategic consequences of a Houthi advance could serve Iranian interests even where the immediate decision-making remains Yemeni and Houthi.
Iran’s wider regional calculation
The latest escalation is unfolding against a dramatically altered regional environment.
Iran has faced pressure across several fronts, while Hezbollah in Lebanon has suffered major strategic setbacks and Iran’s wider network of regional partners has come under increasing scrutiny.
Against this background, control or credible military access near Bab al-Mandab could provide Tehran with another instrument of strategic pressure.
The objective would not necessarily be permanent closure of the strait.
A more realistic objective could be the creation of a credible threat: the ability to raise insurance costs, force shipping diversions, disrupt energy movements and compel regional and Western powers to devote additional military resources to the Red Sea.
That alone could constitute strategic leverage.
Saudi Arabia faces a new security challenge
For Saudi Arabia, the implications are particularly serious.
The Kingdom’s western coastline and Red Sea infrastructure could become increasingly vulnerable if the Houthis establish stronger positions around the southern Red Sea.
The strategic risk is not limited to missiles or drones striking Saudi territory.
A sustained threat to maritime traffic could affect Saudi oil exports, shipping insurance, port operations and the security of critical infrastructure.
The issue becomes even more consequential if disruptions elsewhere in the region simultaneously restrict alternative energy routes.
In such circumstances, Bab al-Mandab becomes more than a Yemeni battlefield: it becomes part of the global energy-security equation.
The international dimension
The renewed fighting also presents a dilemma for the United States and European powers.
Western governments have a direct interest in keeping the Red Sea open, but deeper military intervention in Yemen carries significant political and humanitarian risks.
The experience of the previous Saudi-led intervention demonstrated the difficulty of achieving a decisive military outcome through air power alone.
The latest escalation is different in one important respect: Yemen’s internationally recognised government has increasingly used its own air capabilities against Houthi positions.
Recent fighting has included government air strikes in western Yemen, while ground forces have attempted to prevent the Houthis from consolidating their gains.
The conflict is therefore entering a phase in which Yemeni forces themselves may bear a greater share of the military burden.
Three possible scenarios
1. Houthi consolidation
The most dangerous scenario for regional maritime security would be a successful Houthi consolidation of western coastal territory followed by further pressure towards Dhubab and Bab al-Mandab.
This would give the movement greater strategic depth and potentially enable it to threaten shipping from multiple directions.
2. Government counter-offensive
A successful counter-offensive by Yemeni government and allied forces could reverse Houthi gains and prevent the movement from establishing a durable position near the strait.
Maqbanah, western Taiz, Mokha and Dhubab would then become successive defensive lines rather than stepping stones towards Bab al-Mandab.
3. Prolonged war of attrition
The third and perhaps most immediately realistic possibility is a prolonged struggle without decisive territorial control.
Such a conflict could still be highly damaging.
Even without capturing Bab al-Mandab, the Houthis could maintain sufficient military pressure to disrupt shipping, increase insurance premiums and force commercial vessels to reconsider Red Sea routes.
Conclusion: Bab al-Mandab is becoming the central strategic question
The battle unfolding across south-western Yemen is no longer simply another episode in Yemen’s long-running civil war.
The geography of the fighting has made the western coast a strategic bridge between Yemen’s internal conflict and the wider Middle Eastern confrontation.
For the Houthis, pushing towards the Red Sea offers the possibility of converting territorial gains into regional leverage.
For Iran, a stronger Houthi position near Bab al-Mandab could create another pressure point against Saudi Arabia, the United States and international maritime commerce.
For Yemen’s internationally recognised government and its allies, preventing that development is becoming an increasingly urgent strategic objective.
The central question is therefore no longer simply who controls western Taiz?
It is whether the Houthis can transform battlefield momentum into sustained control of the approaches to Bab al-Mandab — and whether Yemen’s rivals, regional powers and international partners are prepared to prevent the Red Sea’s southern gateway from becoming the next major front in the Middle East’s expanding war.
Strategic assessment: The battle for Bab al-Mandab may ultimately be decided not by a single military assault, but by which side can sustain control of the coastal approaches, maintain supply lines and deny the opposing side the ability to turn geography into maritime leverage.
