By Dr Lubna Farah
ISLAMABAD : The water dispute between India and Pakistan has returned to the centre of bilateral tensions, with Islamabad raising concerns over fluctuations in the flow of the Chenab River, one of the key rivers supporting Pakistan’s agricultural and energy sectors.
The latest concerns come amid continuing disagreement over the Indus Waters Treaty of 1960, adding another sensitive dimension to already strained relations between the two nuclear-armed neighbours.
Pakistani authorities have previously reported unusual fluctuations in the Chenab’s water flow. Pakistan’s Indus Water Commissioner said he had written four letters to his Indian counterpart seeking clarification over the reported changes, but had received no response, according to Islamabad.
The development comes as the two countries remain at odds over the status of the Indus Waters Treaty. India announced in 2025 that it was putting the treaty in abeyance following a sharp deterioration in bilateral relations. Pakistan, however, maintains that the agreement remains valid and binding, while New Delhi has rejected international arbitration proceedings concerning the treaty.
The Chenab is among the western rivers covered by the treaty and allocated primarily for Pakistan’s use, subject to specified provisions governing India’s rights over the river system. Any significant or unexplained change in water flows is therefore highly sensitive for Islamabad, particularly given Pakistan’s dependence on transboundary water resources.
The issue also carries broader economic implications. Pakistan relies heavily on the Indus river system for irrigation and hydropower generation, making water availability a critical component of food security, energy production and economic stability.
If concerns over irregular flows persist, the dispute could move beyond a technical disagreement between the two countries’ water commissioners and assume wider political and security significance.
The water issue is emerging alongside broader shifts in the regional security environment, including the recently signed joint defence agreement between Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Türkiye in Makkah. Under the agreement, an armed attack against any one of the three countries is to be regarded as an attack against all three, with the parties pledging closer defence cooperation and collective deterrence.
There is no established direct link between the Makkah defence agreement and developments concerning the Chenab River. Their coincidence, however, highlights the increasingly complex regional environment in which India-Pakistan tensions are unfolding.
For Islamabad and New Delhi, the management of shared river systems has long been closely linked to wider bilateral relations. With tensions over Kashmir, security and the treaty continuing, water is increasingly being viewed not merely as a resource-management issue but as a potential strategic pressure point.
Any prolonged disruption or significant alteration in river flows could therefore carry consequences extending beyond agriculture and energy, particularly if mechanisms for data sharing, communication and dispute resolution remain strained.
The Chenab issue consequently represents another test of India and Pakistan’s ability to manage a highly sensitive bilateral dispute while preventing technical disagreements over water from escalating into a broader political or security crisis.
