UNS Report
In a climate development attracting growing international attention, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has confirmed that El Niño is now firmly established across the tropical Pacific and is expected to strengthen further in the coming months, with the probability of its persistence through February 2027 approaching 100%.
The development comes as the world is already experiencing elevated temperatures, disruption to food and energy markets, pressure on water resources, humanitarian crises and armed conflicts in several regions.
The WMO says sea-surface temperatures across the tropical Pacific have risen well above average, while current oceanic and atmospheric conditions support further strengthening of the phenomenon. According to the latest official update, the event is expected to reach a very strong intensity before peaking towards the end of 2026, while its climate impacts could continue into 2027.
However, the significance of the development extends far beyond warmer ocean temperatures.
El Niño is not a global heatwave in the direct sense, nor is it a hurricane or a single storm whose path can be plotted on a map. It is a large-scale disruption of the ocean–atmosphere system that redistributes heat, moisture and atmospheric pressure, altering the likelihood of rainfall, drought, heat and storms across regions thousands of kilometres from the Pacific.
As a result, one country may experience drought and unusually high temperatures while another experiences heavy rainfall, flooding and landslides during the same broad period.
The WMO stresses that the strength of El Niño does not automatically determine the severity of impacts in every location. Local outcomes also depend on geography, season, other climate patterns and local conditions.
-1. What has the World Meteorological Organization announced?
In its update published on 3 September 2026, the WMO announced that El Niño is firmly established in the tropical Pacific and is expected to strengthen during the following months.
Global Producing Centres associated with the WMO indicate a probability approaching 100% that El Niño will continue during September–November 2026 and December 2026–February 2027. Within the stated forecasting period, models do not anticipate a return to neutral ENSO conditions or a transition to La Niña.
One of the most notable aspects of the September update is the unusually high level of agreement among forecasting models.
The WMO describes the probability as exceptionally high, reflecting the strength of the signal in the climate models rather than implying that every future detail is known with certainty.
This distinction is crucial.
Forecasting the continuation of El Niño is different from forecasting precisely what will happen in every city or country.
Scientists can have very high confidence that the ocean–atmosphere phenomenon will continue while rainfall forecasts for a particular region remain probabilistic and subject to change.
This is why the WMO recommends using seasonal forecasts alongside national and local information rather than treating the name of the phenomenon itself as a ready-made weather forecast.
-2. What exactly is El Niño?
El Niño is the warm phase of a broader climate phenomenon known as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO).
It is a naturally recurring interaction between the ocean and atmosphere over the tropical Pacific.
Under normal conditions, trade winds help push warm surface water towards the western Pacific, around Indonesia and Australia.
During El Niño, this circulation weakens and warmer water shifts towards parts of the central and eastern Pacific.
As huge quantities of heat move across the ocean, evaporation, cloud formation, rainfall and atmospheric pressure patterns also change.
This is the beginning of the phenomenon’s far-reaching effects.
The ocean is not an isolated body of water. It is one of the planet’s largest reservoirs of heat energy.
When sea-surface temperatures change across a large tropical region, atmospheric circulation can also be affected over distances of thousands of kilometres.
These distant atmospheric connections are known as teleconnections.
Decades of monitoring, satellite observations and climate modelling have enabled scientists to understand many of these links with increasing confidence.
-3. Why is El Niño raising concern in 2026?
There are three major reasons.
The first is the strength of the current signal.
The second is that the phenomenon is occurring in an already warmer world.
The third is that its impacts will not occur in isolation.
Countries already affected by drought, poverty, conflict, weak infrastructure or limited institutional capacity may be more exposed to the risk of a climate shock becoming a humanitarian crisis.
The United Nations and the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction emphasise that El Niño does not automatically become a disaster.
A disaster occurs when natural hazards intersect with high exposure, vulnerability and limited capacity to respond.
This distinction is essential.
It is inaccurate to claim that El Niño will simply “destroy the world”.
A more scientifically accurate description is that El Niño can increase the probability of certain climate hazards in particular regions, while the eventual scale of losses will depend heavily on preparedness and the ability of governments and communities to respond.
-4. Will El Niño turn the Earth into a ball of fire?
There is no scientific basis in the available data for saying that Earth will become a “fiery hell” or that the planet will become uninhabitable because of El Niño.
Such language is sensational rather than scientifically precise.
El Niño can increase the likelihood of unusually high temperatures across broad areas, and El Niño years are often associated with higher global mean temperatures.
That does not mean every location on Earth will experience a continuous heatwave.
At the same time, some regions may experience above-average rainfall or flooding during particular phases of the event.
The scientific picture is therefore considerably more complex than a scenario of “heat everywhere”.
The WMO emphasises that the effects of El Niño vary according to region, season and other climate influences.
-5. Does El Niño mean millions of people will die?
This is one of the claims that requires particular care when the story is republished.
The WMO has not issued an official forecast stating that El Niño will cause millions of deaths.
That does not mean the humanitarian risks are insignificant.
The World Food Programme (WFP) analysed 45 countries already experiencing food insecurity and estimated that El Niño-related impacts could increase the number of people facing acute food insecurity to approximately 274 million by the end of 2027, around 49 million more than the level used as the baseline in its analysis.
These figures concern food insecurity, not deaths.
The distinction is critically important.
A person experiencing acute food insecurity is not necessarily going to die. Rather, their access to sufficient food has become severely threatened.
Humanitarian assistance, social protection, support for farmers and early intervention can all play an important role in preventing such risks from developing into widespread loss of life.
For this reason, presenting the statement “El Niño will kill millions” as a direct scientific forecast would be an exaggeration of the available evidence.
-6. Why is El Niño linked to food security?
Agriculture is among the sectors most sensitive to changes in rainfall and temperature.
Crops require particular amounts of water at specific stages of their growing cycles.
Drought at the beginning of a season can cause germination failure.
Extreme heat during flowering can reduce yields.
Heavy rainfall during harvest can damage crops.
The question is therefore not simply:
“Will the year be wet?”
It is also:
When will the rain arrive, where will it fall, how much will there be, how long will it last, and will it coincide with crop requirements?
The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) has used 41 years of data to analyse agricultural areas most exposed to drought associated with very strong El Niño events.
Its analysis identified elevated risks in parts of the African Sahel, southern Africa, South and South-East Asia, Central America and the Caribbean.
This explains why the issue extends beyond meteorology.
Agriculture, irrigation, finance, trade, health, transport and energy authorities can all be affected.
-7. South Asia under close observation
South Asia is one of the regions requiring close monitoring because the relationship between El Niño and the monsoon has been recognised for decades.
WMO forecasts indicate the possibility of below-average rainfall in parts of South Asia during certain periods associated with the phenomenon. However, this should not be interpreted as a definitive forecast for every country.
For countries with large populations and substantial agricultural economies, changes in rainfall can quickly move from weather into the economic sphere.
Drought can lead to:
– reduced crop production;
– greater demand for irrigation;
– declining water reserves;
– increased electricity consumption for water pumping;
– higher food costs;
– lower farm incomes;
– greater pressure on government support programmes;
– increased import requirements.
Conversely, exceptionally heavy rainfall can cause flooding and damage to crops, roads, bridges and electricity networks.
The risk is therefore not simply “drought”.
It is climate variability and the extent to which infrastructure and economies are able to cope with it.
-8. Pakistan — why does it require particular monitoring?
In Pakistan, the El Niño issue intersects with a complex system of climate risks.
Water, agriculture, energy and food security are closely connected to rainfall patterns, snowmelt, river flows and temperature.
During 2026, the United Nations in Pakistan has highlighted the need to strengthen flood early-warning systems and integrate anticipatory action into government disaster-management planning.
This matters because El Niño does not imply a single scenario for Pakistan.
Different effects may emerge in different provinces and during different seasons.
It would therefore be incorrect to assume that:
“El Niño equals drought across Pakistan.”
The country’s conditions are also influenced by the monsoon, Indian Ocean variability, regional temperatures, snow and river dynamics, and short-term weather systems.
Consequently, agricultural and water-management decisions should not be based solely on the name of the climate phenomenon.
-9. Egypt — what can be expected?
For Egypt, the official information underpinning this report does not provide a scientific basis for claiming that El Niño will inevitably produce a warmer winter, heavier rainfall or more severe drought.
This is consistent with the WMO’s broader scientific principle: the strength of El Niño does not translate directly into the magnitude of impacts in every location.
Egypt is influenced by a wide range of atmospheric and climatic factors, including:
– its geographical position;
– the Mediterranean Sea;
– North African atmospheric circulation;
– pressure systems;
– Mediterranean storm tracks;
– sea-surface temperatures;
– atmospheric circulation patterns;
– influences associated with the Atlantic, Indian and Pacific oceans;
– long-term climate change.
Any claim that “El Niño will make Egypt’s winter warmer” or “bring unprecedented rainfall to Egypt” therefore requires specific regional evidence.
The more appropriate approach is to follow seasonal and regional updates issued by national authorities and regional climate centres.
-10. Why can’t a global forecast be turned into a local weather forecast?
Because the climate operates across different scales.
There is the global scale.
Then continental.
Regional.
National.
And finally local and city-level conditions.
At each level, additional factors become important.
For example, El Niño can alter the probability of a broad climate pattern across a large region, while a local storm may ultimately depend on short-term atmospheric details that cannot be identified months in advance.
This is the difference between:seasonal climate forecasting and daily weather forecasting.
A seasonal forecast may indicate that the probability of rainfall is higher or lower than normal.
A daily forecast attempts to determine where and when rainfall is likely to occur within a much shorter forecasting window.
Confusing these two levels can produce misleading headlines.
-11. El Niño and global temperatures
One of the most important developments to monitor is the contribution of El Niño to global temperatures.
The tropical Pacific contains enormous amounts of stored heat.
When ocean circulation changes, some of this energy can be transferred into the atmosphere.
The WMO indicates that above-average temperatures are likely across large areas of land during the coming period, alongside continued strong El Niño conditions and elevated global ocean temperatures.
This highlights an important relationship.
El Niño is natural, but the climate system in which El Niño occurs is no longer the same climate system that existed decades ago.
Global warming has raised the baseline temperature.
A natural phenomenon such as El Niño therefore occurs on top of a warmer background climate.
This can increase the likelihood that some regions will reach exceptionally high temperatures.
It does not mean that climate change “created” El Niño.
Rather, it means that a natural climate phenomenon is occurring within a climate system altered by rising greenhouse-gas concentrations.
-12. Wildfires — a risk beyond forests
Drought and high temperatures can increase the flammability of vegetation.
Strong El Niño events have historically been associated with severe fire seasons in parts of South-East Asia.
In 2026, Indonesia is experiencing a severe fire season, with warnings that some fires could continue into November because of dry conditions and a delayed rainy season, according to a Reuters report in September.
Wildfires are not limited to the loss of trees.
They can affect:
– air quality;
– respiratory health;
– aviation;
– economic activity;
– agriculture;
– tourism;
– electricity networks;
– wildlife;
– carbon emissions.
Smoke can also cross international borders.
Historically, Indonesian fires have affected air quality in neighbouring South-East Asian countries.
-13. Flooding — the other side of the phenomenon
If drought is one possible face of El Niño, heavy rainfall is another in certain regions.
The phenomenon can redistribute rainfall.
In East Africa, for example, United Nations agencies have warned of increased risks of heavy rainfall, flooding and landslides during certain seasons.
UN analyses also indicate that the interaction between El Niño and other climate patterns, including the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), can increase the risk of heavy rainfall in some areas.
This illustrates a fundamental rule:
El Niño does not operate alone.
Its influence can be strong, but it interacts with a broader network of atmospheric and oceanic processes.
Consequently, the effect of the phenomenon in a particular country may differ from what would be expected from looking only at Pacific Ocean indicators.
-14. Water — the crisis that can begin quietly
Water may be among the most sensitive sectors in some regions.
Long-term drought does not simply mean less rainfall.
It can mean:
– declining reservoir levels;
– falling groundwater supplies;
– greater pressure on drinking-water systems;
– lower agricultural production;
– higher pumping costs;
– increased competition for water.
Heavy rainfall, meanwhile, can result in:
– flooding;
– contamination of water supplies;
– damage to drainage systems;
– failure of small dams or flood-protection infrastructure;
– interruptions to drinking-water services;
– increased water-borne disease risks.
The question for governments should therefore not simply be:
“Are we facing drought or floods?”
It should be:
“What sequence of water-related risks could emerge in each region?”
-15. Energy and electricity
Climate conditions affect energy systems in several ways.
During heatwaves, demand for air conditioning increases.
That can drive electricity demand higher.
In regions dependent on hydropower, drought can reduce electricity generation.
Floods, wildfires and storms can disrupt transmission lines, substations and power plants.
A climate shock can therefore become an energy shock.
This can in turn affect:
– factories;
– hospitals;
– water networks;
– telecommunications;
– transport;
– data centres;
– food cold chains.
Modern climate planning therefore needs to extend beyond environmental ministries to energy, finance, agriculture, water, health and transport authorities.
-16. Public health
Extreme heat can increase the risk of heat stress, particularly among older people, outdoor workers, vulnerable patients and people living in homes without adequate cooling.
Changes in rainfall can also alter the environmental conditions in which certain vectors and diseases spread.
Scientific evidence indicates that ENSO disturbances can influence conditions associated with some vector-borne and water-related diseases by altering temperature, rainfall, insect habitats and water quality.
This does not mean that El Niño directly “causes” a particular disease everywhere.
Rather, changes in local climate conditions can alter disease-transmission risks.
Public-health authorities therefore benefit from linking meteorological information with disease-surveillance systems.
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17. Global food security
Global agriculture operates as an interconnected network.
If wheat production falls in one region, import demand may increase.
If production declines across several regions simultaneously, international prices can come under pressure.
This can affect food-importing countries.
Weather disruption can also affect:
– maize;
– wheat;
– rice;
– soya beans;
– coffee;
– cocoa;
– animal feed;
– livestock;
– fisheries.
However, it should not be assumed that every crop in every country will decline.
El Niño can produce losses in one region while improving conditions for production elsewhere.
This is one reason international trade and food reserves remain important.
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18. The World Food Programme assessment
In August 2026, the World Food Programme warned about the potential impact of El Niño on food security across 45 countries.
According to its analysis, the number of people facing acute food insecurity in these countries could rise from approximately 225 million to around 274 million, an increase of about 49 million people under the conditions considered in the assessment.
The WFP also noted that the previous 2015–2016 El Niño event affected the food security of tens of millions of people.
These figures help explain why the humanitarian community regards the current phenomenon as a risk requiring early preparation.
The objective is not to wait until crops fail and then deliver assistance.
It is to act before losses occur.
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19. The concept of anticipatory action
One of the most important developments in disaster management in recent years has been the shift from:responding after a disaster
to:
acting before it occurs when warning indicators are sufficiently clear.
UN agencies are applying this approach in a numb.
