By Qamar Bashir
In the early days of October 2023, an unprecedented escalation of conflict between Hamas and Israel occurred, marked by a large-scale invasion and offensive launched by Palestinian militant groups from the Gaza Strip against Israel’s Southern Borders. This significant attack, named Operation al-Aqsa Storm was a historic event as it marked the first direct conflict within Israel's boundaries since the 1948 Arab–Israeli War.
What made this offensive particularly stunning was not only its surprise factor but also the fact that it caught not only Israelis, known for their world-class, well- equipped, and highly efficient surveillance and intelligence systems, off guard but also the entire world. The Israeli-Palestinian conflict is closely monitored due to its potential to disrupt peace in the Middle East, a region crucial for global oil supply.
The fear of oil supply disruption and its potential to drive up oil prices, thus impacting economies worldwide, especially vulnerable ones like Pakistan, added an extra layer of concern to this already volatile situation. The audacious and deadly maneuver executed by Hamas has also raised questions about the effectiveness of Mossad, Israel's renowned intelligence agency, which is traditionally considered one of the world's most formidable agencies, specializing in counterterrorism, covert operations, and intelligence collection. Often compared
to counterparts like the CIA (United States), MI6 (United Kingdom), and FSB (Russia), Mossad's inability to anticipate and prevent the surprise attack by Hamas was a notable surprise not only for Israel but also for other global intelligence agencies with a significant presence in the conflict-prone Middle East.
This unprecedented military maneuver involved a clever transformation of civilian
machinery such as bulldozers, hang gliders, and motorbikes, effectively
challenging the Middle East's most potent army. It marked a significant breach in
Israel's defenses, the most serious since the Arab-Israeli conflicts of 1973. Hamas
achieved this through two years of strategic subterfuge, concealing its military
plans and convincing Israel that it had no intention of engaging in a major
confrontation.
While Israel believed it was pacifying a war-weary Hamas through economic
incentives for Gazan workers, the group was covertly and effectively preparing its
fighters. This preparation took place in plain sight but under the guise of not being
ready for a conflict. Hamas employed unconventional and untraceable intelligence
tactics, leading Israel to underestimate its strength and resilience. The result was a
shocking and sudden assault that caught Israel off guard, resulting in 700 Israeli
casualties and dozens of abductions. Major Nir Dinar, spokesperson for the Israeli
Defense Forces, described this surprise move as "Israeli 9/11," admitting that they
had been caught completely unaware.
In the lead-up to this audacious maneuver, Hamas constructed a mock Israeli
settlement in Gaza for training purposes. Even many Hamas leaders were kept in
the dark about the exact plans, and the 1,000 fighters involved had no clear
understanding of the exercises' true purpose. The operation was divided into four
parts: an initial barrage of 3,000 rockets fired from Gaza, simultaneous incursions
by fighters using hang gliders and motorized paragliders, the securing of terrain by
ground troops, and the breach of fortified barriers using explosives and motorbikes.
Bulldozers were employed to widen gaps, and commando units attacked key Israeli
military installations, disrupting communications.
The final phase involved moving hostages to Gaza, a task largely achieved early in
the attack. One such high-profile hostage-taking incident occurred during a raid on
party-goers near Gaza, with social media footage capturing the chaos as people
fled the scene amid gunshots.
Hamas' remarkable ability to maintain the secrecy of its unconventional warfare
capabilities until it unveiled them in a decisive manner and the biggest below to the
invincibility of Israel. The speed, precision, and serenity with which Hamas
militants breached the Gaza-Israel barrier, penetrated the Gaza border crossings
into Israeli settlements and military installations, and launched over 5,000 rockets
into Israel within just 20 minutes were indeed remarkable.
The Hamas' "Operation Al-Aqsa Storm," can be attributed to several factors.
Firstly, it highlights Hamas' perception of Israeli actions as desecration of the holy
Islamic site, the Al-Aqsa Mosque. Additionally, the increasing trend of Arab states
normalizing relations with Israel, as exemplified by the 2020 Abraham Accords
involving the UAE, Bahrain, Sudan, and Morocco. This trend is a cause for
concern among Palestinians, as it reduces pressure on Israel to reach a settlement
with them and signals a prioritization of peace with Arab states over peace with the
Palestinians.
Hamas, while not recognizing Israel, has indicated it would observe a truce if Israel
withdrew to its 1967 borders, but skepticism remains about Israel's willingness to
do so, especially if Saudi Arabia were to conclude its own deal with Israel.
Furthermore, the timing of the attack is significant as it coincides with the 50th
anniversary of the Yom Kippur or Ramadan War in 1973, potentially symbolizing
the aspiration of surprising Israel, as Egypt and Syria did back then.
The trajectory of the conflict remains uncertain. There are concerns about
Hezbollah's involvement in Lebanon, depending on Iran's stance, and the potential
for Palestinian militants in the West Bank to launch their own attacks, creating a
third front against Israel. Moreover, there is the possibility of attacks on Jewish
Israelis by Arab Israelis living in Israel, leading to a fourth front.
The Israeli response to this unprecedented attack on Israeli Soil is surely going to
be robust, devastating and exemplary. The Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin
Netanyahu warned Israelis to brace themselves for a long and difficult war on
Sunday (8th October). It responded with huge strikes on cities in the blockaded
Gaza Strip, destroying dozens of buildings. The Israeli military said it had called
up an unprecedented 300,000 reservists and was imposing a total blockade of the
Gaza Strip, signs it could be planning a ground assault there to defeat Hamas after
it launched a humiliating attack. In a further signal of Israel's rapid shift on to a war
footing, a cabinet member from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud Party
said it could set up a national unity government joined by opposition leaders within
hours.
The recent assault has led to a significant and devastating impact on both sides,
with no clear resolution in sight. President Joe Biden has pledged support for
Israel, indicating that Israel is likely to face these challenges with strong backing.
However, Israeli actions in Gaza may be constrained by the fact that some Israeli
citizens have been kidnapped by Hamas militants and taken to Gaza.
The conflict has the potential to impact global markets and economies in several
ways. One significant concern is the potential for disruptions in oil prices and
supply chains, which can have far-reaching consequences. The Middle East is a
critical region for oil production, and any instability in the area can lead to
increased oil prices, affecting not only energy costs but also the global economy.
Moreover, the conflict's disruption of supply chains and movement of essential
commodities can exacerbate global supply shortages and inflationary pressures. As
transportation routes are affected and infrastructure damaged, the flow of goods
can be impeded, leading to delays and increased costs for essential products. This,
in turn, can lead to rising commodity prices, making basic necessities more
expensive for consumers around the world.
Weak economies, like Pakistan and others in the region, may face additional
challenges as they grapple with the impact of higher oil prices and disruptions in
the supply chain. These countries may experience increased costs for imports,
which can strain their already fragile economic situations and potentially lead to
balance of payments issues and inflation.
This conflict once started is not going to go down any time soon. For Israel, going
full scale against Hamas will be an uphill task as indiscriminate Israeli bombing
would put the lives of the Palestinian mostly civilians at greater risk creating
worldwide reaction against civilian killings. Balancing a robust response with
concerns about international opinion remains a challenge for Israel, though
Western governments have largely expressed support for Israel in the current
conflict. Ultimately, this situation underscores the need for Israel to develop a
comprehensive policy to manage the possible opening of war fronts with Hamas,
Alfatah, Hezbollah and its own citizens of Arab origin.
While Hamas justifies its attacks by citing the 16-year blockade of Gaza and Israeli
crackdowns in the West Bank, Israel and Western countries have condemned the
mass killing of civilians. The situation has jeopardized efforts to normalize
relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia, which could have had implications for
Palestinian aspirations and Iran's influence in the region. As the conflict continues,
there are growing questions about Israel's intelligence failures and the fate of
Israeli hostages, further complicating the path to a resolution.
