By Qamar Bashir
In a stunning and perhaps desperate move, China has issued judicial guidelines on
imposing criminal punishment on diehard "Taiwan independence" separatists for
organizing, plotting, or carrying out schemes of "de jure independence," or seeking
independence from China in collusion with any foreign government, overseas institution,
organization, or individual, and has set severe punishments. The issuance of judicial
guidelines signifies a hardening stance on Taiwan's independence movement which
included allowing for trials in absentia underscoring China's determination to deter any
steps towards Taiwanese independence by defining legal repercussions more clearly and
harshly.
For Taiwan and its separatists, these guidelines represent an escalation in the legal and
political pressure from Beijing. They signal that China is prepared to take more
aggressive legal action against those advocating for Taiwan's independence, potentially
increasing risks for Taiwanese leaders and activists. The threat of harsher penalties and
trials in absentia could also create a chilling effect on pro-independence activities and
rhetoric within Taiwan.
For the United States and Western countries, this development is likely to be seen as a
challenge to their support for Taiwan's autonomy. It could complicate diplomatic
relations and necessitate stronger statements or actions in defense of Taiwan. The
guidelines might also impact U.S. and Western citizens or organizations interacting with
Taiwan, as they could be perceived as colluding with separatists under China's broadened
definitions.
Countries supporting the "One China" policy, like Pakistan, might find themselves in a
more delicate position. While they recognize Beijing's sovereignty over Taiwan, these
nations must balance their diplomatic relations with both China and other countries
supporting Taiwan. The guidelines could pressure these countries to publicly reiterate
their commitment to the "One China" policy and distance themselves from any perceived
support for Taiwanese independence to avoid political or economic repercussions from
China.
This move is an obvious reaction to the unjust consistent and outright support of the
United State of America and the West to the Taiwan separatists diplomatically and
equipping them for violent struggle. The United States and its Western allies support
Taiwan separatists through diplomatic, economic, defense, and advocacy measures.
Diplomatically, the U.S. and Western countries maintain unofficial relations with Taiwan
through trade offices and cultural exchanges, with high-level visits such as U.S. House
Speaker Nancy Pelosi's visit in 2022. They advocate for Taiwan's participation in
international organizations like the World Health Assembly. Economically, the U.S. and
Taiwan have agreements like the Trade and Investment Framework Agreement (TIFA)
and collaborate in critical industries such as semiconductors, where Taiwan's TSMC
plays a key role. Financial support includes investments in tech startups and
infrastructure projects.
Defense and security measures include significant arms sales, such as the $2.2 billion sale
in 2019, which included Abrams tanks and Stinger missiles, and military training and
advisory support. The Taiwan Relations Act commits the U.S. to provide Taiwan with the
means to defend itself, exemplified by regular naval patrols in the Taiwan Strait.
Advocacy efforts focus on promoting Taiwan's democracy and human rights, with public
statements and support for Taiwanese civil society organizations. Educational and
cultural exchanges, such as the Fulbright Scholarship, enhance ties and mutual
understanding. These comprehensive measures help Taiwan resist Chinese pressure and
maintain its de facto independence.
They are helping Taiwan separatists to employ diverse strategies domestically and
internationally. Domestically, they influence public opinion and policy through
democratic elections and legislative actions, while also promoting a distinct Taiwanese
culture and identity.
Internationally, they engage in informal diplomacy, seek participation in global
organizations, and strengthen security ties, particularly with the United States, to bolster
their defense capabilities. Additionally, Taiwan focuses on economic measures like trade
diversification and technological advancements to reduce reliance on China and increase
its global standing.
Despite their efforts, Taiwan separatists face significant challenges from China's
diplomatic, economic, and military pressure aimed at isolating Taiwan and discouraging
its independence.
Internal divisions within Taiwan also complicate the independence movement, as
opinions vary on the issue. Moreover, the international community's adherence to the
"One China" policy limits Taiwan's formal recognition as a sovereign state. Nonetheless,
the movement persists in its pursuit of greater international support and recognition,
striving to maintain Taiwan's democratic values and autonomy.
China's new judicial guidelines targeting Taiwan separatists will likely provoke strong
defiance from Taiwanese independence advocates, who may increase their activism
despite the risk of harsher penalties and trials in absentia. The United States and Western
allies are expected to condemn the move, reaffirm support for Taiwan, and potentially
enhance diplomatic, economic, and military ties with the island. This escalation could
strain U.S.-China and China-West relations, leading to reduced trade, economic
sanctions, and heightened military presence in the Asia-Pacific region. Consequently,
regional tensions may rise, polarizing alliances and destabilizing global economic and
security dynamics.
China's new judicial guidelines against Taiwan separatists will directly pressure countries
supporting the One China policy to reaffirm their commitment, potentially leading to
diplomatic rewards or repercussions from China. These countries may have to align their
international positions more closely with Beijing, limiting their engagement with Taiwan.
Indirectly, heightened regional tensions could destabilize the Asia-Pacific, impacting
global supply chains and creating economic uncertainty. These nations might also face
challenges balancing their ties with China and Western countries supporting Taiwan,
while domestic public opinion could shift, pressuring governments to address human
rights concerns more transparently.
China aims to reinforce its sovereignty claims over Taiwan and deter moves toward
independence by imposing harsh penalties on separatists, thereby intimidating pro-
independence activities and discouraging foreign support.
To control the fallout, China will engage in diplomatic efforts to reassure and strengthen
bilateral ties with countries supporting the One China policy through trade deals,
investment agreements, and strategic partnerships. Additionally, China will offer
economic incentives, such as increased trade and participation in the Belt and Road
Initiative, conduct military exercises to demonstrate its readiness, and use public
diplomacy to justify its policies. Internally, China will enhance security measures to
monitor dissent and implement laws to further criminalize support for Taiwanese
independence, aiming to maintain regional stability and international support while
solidifying its territorial claims.
