By Qamar Bashir
The most stunning challenges to both the USA under Trump and to Europe under threat of a third world war are two Asian giants, China and India. Both China and India are rapidly challenging the Wests’ dominance in the fields of economy, defense, technology, and space exploration. Over the last ten years, according to the IMF, the Chinese economy grew by about 74%, whereas the Indian economy grew by 77%. Comparatively, the USA economy grew by about 28%, while European economies grew between 7% to
17%, and Japan grew at just 6%.
Now that the reins of the world most formidable economy are in the hands of one of the most unpredictable leaders, Donald Trump, the future of the U.S. economy remains uncertain. Trump, being in the driving seat, can either cause the economy to nosedive or lift it to unprecedented levels, depending on whether his out-of-the-box policies and his promise to obliterate the deep state succeed or fail.
In these two scenarios, one may lead to the USA retaining its first place, while the other, if the economy cannot sustain Trump shock therapy, could result in China emerging as the world top economy within the next ten years.
With the recently available data, these trajectories are not difficult to predict. If China
continues to grow at 74% per decade (or about 7.4% per year) and the U.S. grows at 28%
per decade (or about 2.8% per year), it would take approximately 11 years for China to
surpass the U.S. in GDP. This means China could overtake the U.S. around the year
2036.
Despite the world's focus on China's growth and efforts to slow down its rise, another
Asian giant has been making significant progress and is on track to surpass the European
and Japanese economies within the next three years.
This prediction is based on the IMF's recently released fact sheet. According to this data,
if India continues to grow at 7.7% per year, while Germany (1% per year), Japan (0.6%
per year), the UK (1.4% per year), and France (1.2% per year) maintain their current
growth rates, India would surpass both Germany and Japan to become the third-largest
economy in the world in approximately three years, by 2028. However, if we factor in the
Russia-Ukraine war, which is likely to slow down European economies and impact their
prosperity, this period could be shorter. In such a scenario, India—continuing at 7.7% per
year—would surpass both Germany and Japan to become the third-largest economy in
just two years, by 2027, instead of 2028.
While the USA faces an imminent threat from China in maintaining its top position,
Europe and Japan—both of which have dominated global economic power for
centuries—are showing signs of yielding their dominance to other growing economies.
Not only is India poised to overtake them, but other rapidly growing economies, such as
Turkey and Indonesia, are also set to challenge their positions. Under Erdogan, Turkey
has grown at a rate of 59% over the last decade, while Indonesia has grown at 51% in the
same period.
Even after factoring in the Russia-Ukraine war, which is expected to slow down
European economies with Germany and Japan growing at just 0.5% per year, the timeline
for Turkey and Indonesia to rise in global economic rankings remains unchanged. If
Turkey continues to grow at 5.9% per year, it would take 29 years to surpass Germany,
making it the fourth-largest economy by 2054. Similarly, Indonesia, growing at 5.1% per
year, would take 20 years to surpass Japan, securing the fifth position by 2045. While
Europe's economic slowdown makes it easier for these emerging economies to catch up,
the overall timeline remains the same due to the significant gap they still need to close.
As of 2025, Pakistan's nominal Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is projected to be $357.0
billion, up from an estimated $345.9 billion in 2024, reflecting a modest growth rate. The
International Monetary Fund (IMF) has recently revised Pakistan's GDP growth outlook
for 2025, downgrading it from 3.2% to 3.0%, indicating ongoing economic challenges.
In an ambitious bid to transform its economic landscape, Pakistan has unveiled the
"Uraan Pakistan" initiative, aiming to elevate the nation's economy to $1 trillion by 2035.
This comprehensive plan focuses on the "5Es Framework," targeting key sectors such as
exports, equity, empowerment, environment, and energy to drive sustainable growth.
However, achieving this ambitious target requires a significant acceleration in economic
growth. According to projections, without substantial reforms, Pakistan's economy is
expected to reach only $573 billion by 2035. To realize the $1 trillion goal, the country
would need to implement transformative policies that substantially boost economic
performance.
Given its current nominal GDP projections and growth rates, Pakistan is unlikely to
ascend to the top five global economies within the next decade. While Pakistan's
economic position may improve slightly over the decade, it is unlikely to break into the
top 10 global economies unless substantial reforms and accelerated growth strategies are
implemented.
The world geo-economics landscape is changing at a rapid pace. Traditional powers like
the USA and Europe are fast yielding to emerging powers. Both the USA and Europe
must introduce creative and out-of-the-box policies and initiatives to remain relevant on
the global power chessboard in the upcoming decade. However, implementing deep-
rooted reforms in the well-informed, educated, and empowered communities of the USA
and Europe is a challenging task, unlike in economies where the population is
disciplined, still subservient to state authorities, and not very vocal or demanding.
Nonetheless, both the USA and Europe have no choice but to break their economic and
social inertia and undertake fundamental reforms to remain relevant in geo-economics;
otherwise, they risk being relegated to a lower rung in the global community.
