By Qamar Bashir
The dynamics of the political landscape in Pakistan are shifting rapidly. PTI has
introduced new strategies and pieces, while the other party is making desperate moves to
stay in the game, fearing the loss of its most effective and lethal piece, the judiciary that
has previously demonstrated the ability to eliminate even the most powerful opponents.
However, it still retains two powerful pieces: the parliament and the executive. Despite
their inherent strength, these have been significantly weakened due to alleged credibility,
legitimacy, and legality issues.
Earlier, the secured resourceful, all powerful and fortified king, the supra executive
having three most powerful pieces; the parliament, the judiciary and the executive on its
side, successfully cornered and imprisoned the PTI’s king and was sure of its success
until the judiciary decided to part ways and reclaimed its independence.
The incarcerated king, like a punching bag of steel, refused to bend, break, intimidate, or
harass. He knew very well that he had been captured and delinked from its pawns and
power pieces, but not yet defeated. He made clever defensive moves and allowed the
other party to attack him relentlessly, using him like a punching bag. As a sportsman of
the highest caliber, he perhaps knew that his rival would soon punch itself out, expending
so much energy in its attacks that it would be exhausted, potentially leading to its own
downfall or giving the opponent a chance to recover and counterattack.
The PTI was strengthened by the judiciary's increasing independence from the executive,
raising the stakes higher. The judiciary began exercising its independence which was
reflected in its decision notably on April 1, when the Islamabad High Court suspended
jail sentences of Imran Khan and Bibi in the state gifts case. The Lahore High Court
restored Imran Khan's interim bail in seven cases related to the May 9 riots and
suspended his 14-year jail sentence. In May 2024, the Islamabad High Court granted bail
to Imran Khan in the 190 million pounds corruption case, in which he and his wife were
accused of receiving land worth billions of rupees as a bribe from a real estate tycoon.
The real estate tycoon, who was in the past an ardent supporter of the supra executive,
refused to testify against the PTI chairman, showing defiance.
The PTI, which had lost all hope in the lower or superior judiciary, suddenly found itself
on another pedestal, reinvigorating its hopes and inspiration for securing the release of its
supreme leader and reactivating the PTI as a party, further strengthening its position on
the political chessboard.
Shah Mahmood Qureshi’s interim bail was extended in the May 9 vandalism case, Asad
Umar received an extension on his interim bail in connection with the same incident, and
Fawad Chaudhry was released. Hamad Azher, a young intelligent and fiery leader came
out of hiding on the instruction of former Chairman PTI to lead the political side of the
party, Shibli Faraz, a close associate and trusted friend of Chairman PTI was reactivated.
After going through the worst form of persecution; physical, psychological, emotional,
financial and economic, most of the leadership and their supporters have become resilient
and are no more afraid of use of kinetic means to harass or intimidate them.
PTI’s active engagement to craft a unified forum to confront the parliament and the
executive on the results of the 2024 Election and to reclaim their lost mandate has added
another significant dimension to the existing complexity of the political scenario.
With the government in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) province, the PTI has access to
the province's resources. The leadership, which has been persecuted, will find safe haven
in KP province. They will have official resources to amplify their message and to execute
political rallies, public meetings, and other agitational maneuvers without the fear of
arrest and persecution. Moreover, they can frustrate the federation's attempts to muzzle
the PTI, at least in KP Province.
The defiant, ardent and courageous moves by the PTI is gaining a lot of traction in the
traditional and social media both domestic and international. Social media has become a
powerful tool for PTI to amplify its narrative and challenge the narrative of its rival. PTI
leadership have learned the art and craft to connect with the public, bypassing traditional
media filters and presenting their unfiltered narrative.
PTI has been using Social media platforms like Twitter, Facebook, and Instagram are
also used from inside and outside the country despite its internet slow down and banning
X to mobilize supporters, organize rallies, and create a sense of community among PTI
followers, maintaining high levels of enthusiasm and participation. PTI leverages social
media to counter the narratives presented by the army and other political opponents by
quickly responding to allegations, sharing alternative viewpoints, and highlighting
inconsistencies. Additionally, viral campaigns, including memes, videos, and hashtags,
are used to spread the party's message and dominate online discussions.
The odds are even more complicated on the supra-executive side. In Balochistan and KP,
insurgent and anti-federation elements harbor grudges against the army. Many political
parties, skeptical of the 2024 election results, are now openly criticizing the supra-
executive. The inter-institutional sentiment, particularly after the Bahawalnagar incident,
has created tension between the police and the army. Additionally, the repatriation of
illegal Afghans and the enforcement of strict border control have led to unusual border
tensions between Pakistan and Afghanistan. Social media is filled with criticism of the
army, which, despite the inherent strengths of the supra-executive, has posed significant
challenges to it.
As the game approaches its final stages, where a winner may emerge or there might be a
draw, every move becomes crucial. A draw could benefit both parties but would result in
handing over the parliament and the executive to PTI as part of an agreed deal. Those
who were in the parliament and executive on the basis of flawed and rigged Form 47,
now assume the status of the opposition will play a new round of chess game. featuring
PTI and a supra executive on one side, and PML(N), PPP, and MQM on the other.
Although this scenario has a slim chance of materializing, in the realms of chess and
politics, anything can happen.
Another scenario is more scary where one party wins, and the other refuses to accept
defeat. This would lead the country into another prolonged chess game, potentially
adding many layers of complexity on political, financial and economic challenges faced
by the nation, and yet another round of miseres inflicted on the people of the country.
