By Qamar Bashir
It appears that, apart from the establishment, all other influential factors are turning against the government, which is now in a dire and ensnared position with no apparent way out. In its frustration, the government is making successive errors and issuing threats, claiming that any disruption to its rule would spell disaster for the country’s
stability and survival.
This defensive posture started with a hastily organized and poorly executed press
conference by the Information Minister, who announced a ban on the PTI party without
proper homework, without any consultation or approval from the cabinet or allies.
Yesterday (18 July), the Defense Minister during an interview presented a surprising and
puzzling logic. He claimed that the PTI’s criticism of the USA has ironically resulted in
the entire US machinery supporting the PTI. If this reasoning holds any truth, the
government has a straightforward strategy at its disposal: immediately begin criticizing
the USA even more vehemently than PTI did to garner greater US support.
The fiery Chief Minister of Punjab asserted that any person or party attempting to derail
the system would be dealt with severely, implying that the government will complete its
five-year term regardless of mandate, legality, or constitutionality. She pledged to hold
the Supreme Court accountable for restoring PTI as a political party, accused the judges
of bias, and called for judicial accountability.
Mr. Sanaullah of PML(N), who prides himself on quelling the PTI’s long march with
force and using security forces to silence opposition, pledged to use all available
government resources to obliterate the PTI. He termed PTI as "Fitna" (discord) and a
threat to the country's safety, security, and integrity.
The ruling elite’s narrative is straightforward. They assert that the country is at a critical
juncture where any political upheaval risks default. The government claims to have
achieved significant economic stability, successfully securing a staff-level agreement
with the IMF for a $7 billion loan, improving foreign reserves, reducing inflation, and
boosting the stock exchange. They argue that these achievements validate their
competence to govern, and therefore, all alleged transgressions should be forgiven, if not,
the country’s survival will be at stake.
The narrative of PTI is fundamentally opposed to that of the ruling elite. They argue that
even if the government were to achieve miraculous economic feats, it lacks legitimacy
due to a stolen mandate. Therefore, the opposition is determined to use all available
means to dislodge what they consider an illegitimate government, regardless of the cost.
However, interestingly, the indicators the government once touted in its favor are turning
against it one by one both internally and externally.
Internally, the judiciary has become completely independent. It first restored PTI as a
party and allocated reserve seats to it. It is likely to frustrate the government’s attempt to
appoint retired judges or lawyers as presiding officers in the election tribunals, arguing
that the amendment in the Election Act made in 2024 will apply to the next elections.
This means that tribunals will make their decisions based on Form 45, which could
allegedly result in the demise of PML(N), PPP, and MQM in the parliament.
The government has been touting the boom in the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) as a
key indicator of economic revival, but the KSE-100 index lost 501.46 points today (July
19, 2024), closing at 73,252.56 amid political and economic uncertainties.
Externally, the government is under immense pressure. The US Congress passed a
resolution deeming the 2024 elections highly rigged and demanded an independent
inquiry and the release of the PTI founder. This was echoed by a UN independent group
based in Switzerland. Recently, the European Parliament discussed the elections,
expressing serious concerns over widespread rigging and human rights violations,
emphasizing the need for Pakistan to uphold democratic principles and human rights.
In the economic and financial sector, the recent Fitch report, vehemently rejected by the
Planning Minister, has added further pressure on the government. Fitch painted a dismal
picture of the country’s economic and financial status and highlighted significant political
instability. The report projected that the PML-N-led coalition government would remain
in power for the next 18 months, predicted longer jail terms for Imran Khan, and
mentioned the possibility of a military-backed technocratic government.
This step will be necessitated, if the election tribunals through their rulings return the
stolen mandate to PTI which being unacceptable, the establishment could directly take
over the government, dissolving existing political structures and appointing technocrats
to key positions. The establishment, in collaboration with compliant political forces,
could push for legal changes or emergency measures to justify the appointment of a
technocratic government. It may leverage the judicial rulings to disqualify elected
officials and pave the way for a technocratic administration.
Unfortunately, all parties are calling the others to back off from their positions in the
national interest without yielding any ground themselves. They define national interest
through their own lenses, forgetting that upholding the national interest primarily
involves following the constitution and establishing the rule of law in the country.
If sanity prevails, the government should allow the Election Commission and judiciary to
independently reconfigure the election results based on Form 45 and accept the decision.
The establishment should reconsider any unconstitutional roles, and the civilian
bureaucracy should act as true public servants to resolve issues faced by the people. The
opposition should refrain from taking the law into their own hands and seek justice
through constitutional means. Success would depend on all stakeholders simultaneously
reverting to their constitutional roles; otherwise, nothing will make sense.
However, given the current backdrop of political maneuvering, judicial interventions, and
international scrutiny, expecting all parties to align constitutionally may be overly
optimistic. The entrenched interests and historical patterns of behavior suggest that while
the path of constitutional adherence is clear, achieving it requires unprecedented
cooperation and goodwill from all involved parties. Without this, the cycle of political
instability and institutional distrust is likely to continue, making the sensible suggestion
appear impractical in a system where entrenched interests often move counterclockwise.
