By Qamar Bashir
Shahbaz Sharif, celebrated for his administrative prowess, confronts the formidable task of guiding the nation towards political stability and economic resilience. To achieve this, he must enact bold reforms, including the elimination of subsidies and the privatization of underperforming State-Owned Enterprises like PIA. Moreover, vital institutions such as the Federal Board of Revenue must undergo
modernization to combat the pervasive corruption that plagues the system.
Furthermore, urgent measures are needed to tackle issues like electricity theft and to broaden the tax base, encompassing sectors such as agriculture, retail, and real estate. Encouraging provinces to bolster their revenue streams and elevating the tax to GDP ratio from its current 9 to 10% to a sustainable 18% are imperative for long-term fiscal stability.
These transformative reforms hold immense promise, potentially injecting Rs. 5,800 trillion into the national coffers. This enhanced liquidity will serve as a magnet for both foreign and domestic investors, fostering a climate of confidence in the business community. Ultimately, this revitalization will spur economic growth, job creation, and an increase in per capita income, thus easing the burden
of escalating commodity and utility prices on the populace.
Shahbaz Sharif can achieve these results by adopting a singular focus to match
China's efficiency in implementing CPEC-1 and CPEC-2. China's method of
executing projects starts with centralized planning and decision-making, facilitated
by its political system. The government establishes long-term development goals
and priorities, often through visionary initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative
(BRI) and Made in China 2025. This top-down approach ensures alignment with
national objectives and promotes consensus-building within the ruling Communist
Party, providing a solid foundation for ambitious projects.
China utilizes state-led investment and coordination mechanisms to mobilize
resources effectively. State-owned enterprises (SOEs) are pivotal in infrastructure
development, benefiting from government financing and regulatory support.
Additionally, China promotes public-private partnerships (PPPs) to leverage the
strengths of both sectors, encouraging innovation, risk-sharing, and efficiency
gains essential for successful projects, especially in infrastructure and technology
sectors.
China's success in project implementation is rooted in its focus on capacity
building, technological advancement, and robust governance. Investments in
human capital development, research, and skills training ensure the availability of
skilled labor needed for intricate projects. Adaptive governance and flexible policy
responses allow authorities to navigate challenges and adjust strategies during
implementation. Moreover, effective project management, oversight, and
accountability mechanisms ensure timely completion and high-quality outcomes,
reinforcing China's reputation for efficient execution of high-value projects.
Despite China's renowned efficiency and dedication, delays have persisted in the
implementation of projects under CPEC-1, initially valued at $65 billion and slated
for completion by 2025. Currently, only $25 billion of the total investment has
materialized, leaving approximately $40 billion worth of projects still in the
pipeline.
The delay in CPEC projects are not due to Chinese lack of commitment but
primarily stemming from Pakistan's volatile political and security landscape.
Security threats, including terrorism and regional instability, have disrupted
construction activities and discouraged investors, resulting in delays and increased
costs. Bureaucratic inefficiencies, regulatory hurdles, and governance issues within
Pakistan's administrative framework have further impeded project implementation.
Inefficient decision-making processes, corruption allegations, and a lack of
transparency in procurement and contracting have eroded investor confidence and
contributed to the sluggish pace of project execution.
Additional factors contributing to the delay in CPEC project completion
encompass Pakistan's economic downturns, fiscal constraints, and geopolitical
tensions, compounded by external pressures such as regional rivalries and strategic
interests. Sovereignty concerns, territorial disputes, and geopolitical alignments
also pose challenges. Ecological impacts and community resettlement issues
further complicate CPEC projects, necessitating careful consideration and
mitigation strategies.
Shahbaz Sharif's demonstrated administrative prowess positions him to secure the
remaining $40 billion investment in CPEC-1 and effectively operationalize the five
growth corridors of CPEC-2: the Growth Corridor, Open Corridor, Livelihood
Corridor, Innovation Corridor, and Green Corridor. Successful implementation of
these initiatives could potentially lift the country out of its current economic
challenges within the next five years. However, achieving this ambitious goal
hinges on overcoming numerous ifs and buts.
If Shahbaz Sharif can achieve political stability and consensus among the
provinces regarding the distribution of CPEC-1 and CPEC-2 projects, it could set a
strong foundation for success. Maintaining a positive relationship with the
establishment and enhancing bureaucratic competency are crucial steps in ensuring
efficient project management. Additionally, surviving the political landscape over
the next five years is essential for continuity and progress. Streamlining
bureaucratic processes, addressing security concerns, and providing policy clarity
will boost investor confidence and project continuity. Timely securing funding,
developing necessary infrastructure, and addressing local stakeholder concerns are
pivotal in overcoming obstacles to project implementation. Resolving legal
disputes and regulatory inconsistencies will further facilitate smooth project
execution. Success in these endeavors will be key to unlocking the full potential of
CPEC and driving economic growth in Pakistan.
Assuming Shahbaz Sharif successfully materializes the remaining $40 billion
investment in CPEC-1 and fully operationalizes CPEC-2 projects over the next five
years, Pakistan's economic, financial, and developmental landscape will undergo a
transformative change.
Completion of CPEC-1 and CPEC-2 will result in the construction of new roads,
ports, railways, and energy projects, enhancing connectivity both within Pakistan
and with China. This improved infrastructure will boost trade, transportation, and
economic activity, paving the way for increased investment and development
opportunities.
The establishment of special economic zones (SEZs) along the CPEC route has the
potential to attract domestic and foreign industries, leading to industrial growth,
technology transfer, and skills development. This diversification of Pakistan's
industrial base will contribute to increased productivity and economic resilience.
Furthermore, the completion of energy projects such as power plants and
renewable energy installations will address Pakistan's energy deficit and enhance
energy security, laying a strong foundation for sustained economic growth.
Improved infrastructure and connectivity facilitated by CPEC will facilitate trade
not only between Pakistan and China but also with other countries in the region.
This increased trade volume will drive exports, reduce trade costs, and stimulate
overall economic growth, ultimately leading to a more prosperous and developed
Pakistan.
Shahbaz Sharif's efforts to achieve balanced regional development and attract
further foreign investment can be significantly enhanced by prioritizing political
stability in Pakistan. Political stability serves as the cornerstone for ensuring
continuity in policies and government priorities, creating an environment
conducive to long-term planning and execution of infrastructure projects like
CPEC.
By establishing political stability, Sharif can bolster investor confidence, both
domestic and foreign, in the predictability and security of the operating
environment. This confidence is crucial for attracting investment in large-scale
projects like CPEC, as investors seek assurances that their investments will be
protected and secure.
Moreover, a stable political environment streamlines decision-making processes
within the government, minimizing bureaucratic delays and bottlenecks in project
implementation. Timely approvals, permits, and clearances are essential for
keeping CPEC projects on track and ensuring their successful execution.
Furthermore, political stability is essential for maintaining positive relations with
China and other international partners involved in CPEC. Consistent diplomatic
engagement and cooperation are necessary for resolving issues, negotiating
agreements, and securing additional investment for CPEC projects.
In essence, political stability provides the foundation for effective governance,
investor confidence, and security, all of which are critical for the successful and
timely completion of CPEC projects. Without political stability, the risk of delays,
disruptions, and project failures increases, potentially undermining the
transformative potential of CPEC for Pakistan's economy and
