By Qamar Bashir
The world’s gaze is fixed on New Delhi as leaders from the Group of 20 (G20) nations convene for a historic summit marking the culmination of India’s year-long presidency. This momentous occasion underscores India’s growing significance on the global stage and highlights the formidable challenges it faces in navigating intricate international relations. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has strategically leveraged India’s G20 presidency to bolster the nation’s geopolitical standing and assert itself as a key global influencer. However, this path forward is fraught with
obstacles, including persistent disagreements among G20 members, particularly Russia and China, on pivotal issues such as the Ukraine crisis.
India’s dicey rise on the global stage is intricately intertwined with the ongoing geopolitical rivalry between the Western powers, led by the United States and supported by affluent European economies. This rivalry is rooted in the desire to curb China’s rapid ascent and technological prowess. On the other hand, China's unprecedented economic growth, bolstered by its vast resources and highly skilled workforce, has allowed it to engage with and invest in emerging economies, effectively creating mutually beneficial partnerships while simultaneously sowing apprehension among Western nations. The fear of China’s influence has galvanized Western powers to promote India as a counterbalance. While India claims the status of the world’s fifth-largest economy, it is essential to acknowledge that a substantial portion of its population still grapples with poverty.
This reality contrasts starkly with India's portrayal as an economic powerhouse.
Thus, the effort to artificially elevate India's status to counter China's influence is
riddled with complexities and contradictions.
India's economic trajectory may have transitioned from a nation of modest global
influence to one of the world's top economies. Nevertheless, this economic ascent
has not translated into proportional influence on the global policy stage. India's
journey to assert itself as a significant global player remains an ongoing challenge.
Despite the impressive economic figures, India's impact on global policies has
often been met with a degree of restraint. While India is determined to leverage its
G20 presidency to assert more influence across diverse domains, including
economics, social issues, environmental concerns, and digital advancements, it
remains acutely aware of the shifting dynamics in international relations.
However, it's important to recognize that once China reaches a favorable accord
with Western powers on issues of mutual concern, India's aspiration for a more
prominent role on the world stage could face a sobering reality check. The pursuit
of a greater global say is akin to building a house of cards, vulnerable to the winds
of geopolitical change and strategic realignments.
India's leadership within the G20 framework unfolds against a backdrop of
escalating geopolitical tensions, notably with China, with whom India grapples
over border disputes. The absence of Chinese President Xi Jinping from the G20
summit in New Delhi has raised numerous questions and conjectures.
Xi's decision to abstain from the summit can be viewed through multiple lenses. It
may be perceived as a diplomatic rebuff, indicating China's reluctance to engage
with India on this particular platform. Alternatively, it could be seen as a strategic
maneuver to elevate alternative multilateral groups, such as the BRICS, above the
G20 and G7, as China aims to reshape the global order in alignment with its
interests.
China's foreign affairs spokesperson, Mao Ning, announced that Premier Li Qiang
would lead the Chinese delegation. This marks the first time a Chinese leader has
skipped the G20 leaders' summit since its inception in 2008. The move symbolizes
China's narrative of the "rise of the East and the decline of the West," showcasing
its willingness to assert itself on its own terms.
Despite China's rebuke, India is determined to leverage its G20 presidency to assert
greater influence across various domains, including economics, social issues,
environmental concerns, and digital advancements. India's proactive engagement
with global business leaders through the B20 engagement group has been
instrumental in promoting trade and investment opportunities for Indian businesses
on a global scale. This positions Indian industry as a significant player in
discussions on international trade and policy matters.
However, India's G20 presidency coincides with a period of pronounced global
polarization characterized by rising debt levels, slowing economic growth, and
heightened uncertainty. Even as India's rapidly expanding economy offers a
strategic advantage, the path forward is marred by divisions and disagreements
among G20 members, particularly regarding critical issues like the Ukraine crisis.
One domain where India can exert significant influence on global affairs is the
digital sector. India's digital ecosystem, marked by technological innovation and a
burgeoning tech-savvy population, holds the potential to transform the global
landscape. India's successful digital transformation can serve as a blueprint for
other nations, fostering international collaboration in the digital realm.
Nonetheless, a substantial portion of India's economy remains labor-intensive,
necessitating a transition to knowledge-intensive production methods. China has
long enjoyed a manufacturing advantage due to low labor costs. While India's
focus on research and development and initiatives like Production-Linked
Incentives (PLIs) are steps in the right direction, this transformation will take time.
India's G20 presidency has made strides in addressing pressing social and
employment challenges. The development of an international occupational
classification system to promote cross-country comparability is a noteworthy
accomplishment. Furthermore, the commitment to provide comprehensive social
protection for gig and platform workers is a crucial step toward safeguarding
worker welfare in the modern gig economy. However, it is vital to acknowledge
that India faces domestic challenges in this regard, particularly concerning the
welfare of its vulnerable populations. Religious and ethnic minorities continue to
grapple with discrimination, and incidents of gender-based violence persist. While
India's international commitments are commendable, it must address these issues
comprehensively on the home front.
India's audacious endeavors during its G20 presidency are not without inherent
risks. The lack of consensus on binding agreements, particularly due to objections
from Russia and China, could undermine India's credibility on the global stage.
Furthermore, the inability to foster a joint communique from previous G20
meetings raises questions about the effectiveness of India's presidency.
India's G20 presidency represents a defining moment for the nation, offering an
opportunity to amplify its global influence in an increasingly divided world. The
G20 platform provides India with the means to shape global policies, strengthen
economic ties, and showcase its digital prowess. However, formidable challenges
persist, chiefly in the form of ongoing discord within the G20, escalating
geopolitical frictions, and the conspicuous absence of key leaders like Xi Jinping.
As the world closely scrutinizes the proceedings of the G20 leaders' summit in
New Delhi, it's crucial for the global community to approach the event with a
discerning perspective. While India's presidency indeed represents a significant
moment, one should not assume that India possesses the unwavering capacity,
visionary acumen, and intellectual prowess to seamlessly leverage this pivotal
opportunity to propel its global ambitions and firmly establish itself as a paramount
player in international affairs.
India's journey on the global stage is undeniably intricate, characterized by a
tapestry of contradictions and complexities. The optics may suggest a seamless
ascent, but the reality is marred by multifaceted challenges, conflicts of interest,
and political considerations that often transcend the pure merit of the endeavor.
In essence, India's path to global prominence is a formidable one, laden with
obstacles and competing narratives and a world marked by intricate geopolitics and
diverse interests.
