By Qamar Bashir
During his testimony before a subcommittee of the US House Committee on Foreign Affairs, Donald Lu (20th March, 2024) tacitly and implicitly endorsed the legitimacy of the current government, which assumed power amidst allegations of significant election rigging. Throughout his extensive testimony, he largely echoed the narratives put forth by the outgoing coalition government, interim government,
and the newly sworn-in government of Shahbaz Sharif on various contentious issues. In doing so, he underscored the United States' commitment to supporting the newly installed government of Shahbaz Sharif in Pakistan, even when certain policy decisions may seem contrary to US interests.
During the hearing, Mr. Lu emphasized Pakistan's significance as an important
country with abundant opportunities for US companies and multinationals to
thrive. He refrained from using leverage through the IMF or trade with Pakistan to
impose major policy decisions, instead suggesting that the US supported the IMF's
positive review of Pakistan's program. This support has paved the way for the
release of the last tranche of over one billion US dollars, expected to be disbursed
to the State Bank of Pakistan soon. Furthermore, there are expectations that the US
will assist Pakistan in negotiating a new agreement with the IMF once the current
Stand-By Agreement expires next month.
Moreover, the testimony highlighted several contentious decisions made by
Pakistan, notably its pursuit of completing the Iran-Pakistan pipeline, carrying out
surgical strikes within Afghanistan, expelling illegal Afghan aliens, and refusing to
repatriate Shakeel Afridi, who assisted the CIA in locating Osama Bin Laden.
Despite these concerns, the US remains predominantly focused on the China-
Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and Pakistan's deepening reliance on China.
Particularly worrisome is the escalating debt associated with CPEC projects, the
mounting circular debt owed to Chinese companies for electricity, and Pakistan's
steadfast commitment to proceeding with the completion of the Pakistan-Iran
pipeline.
Donald Lu also implicitly expressed support for the role of the Pakistani armed
forces, acknowledging their involvement in civilian matters and their participation
in the Special Investment Facilitation Council (SIFC). He commended the
Pakistani armed forces for their significant contributions, highlighting their status
as the sixth-largest armed forces globally and their extensive training alongside US
generals over several decades. Lu underscored the pivotal role of the Pakistan
Army in advancing US objectives, including assistance against the USSR, efforts
in Afghanistan, and the eradication of global terrorist threats like Al-Qaeda,
particularly in safeguarding US interests worldwide.
In his eloquent and impactful speech, Lu effectively cautioned against undermining
the Pakistani army and disregarding their concerns regarding Pakistan's
Afghanistan policy, surgical strikes within Iran and Afghanistan, and the military-
supported campaign to address illegal immigration within the country.
Donald Lu's testimony highlighted the US acceptance of the contentious election
results in Pakistan, acknowledging the orderly conduct of the elections while
expressing concern over incidents of pre- and post-election violence and
disruptions to communication networks. Although allegations of widespread
rigging during the vote counting process were acknowledged, the US opted not to
exert pressure on the Pakistani government or state authorities to address these
claims.
Furthermore, Lu's testimony echoed the narrative put forth by the PML(N) and
PPP regarding the Election Commission of Pakistan's role in adjudicating
allegations of election rigging and ensuring justice for affected parties. However,
the US refrained from endorsing specific actions to remedy these concerns, such as
restoring access to blocked social media websites, including X, or ensuring
freedom of speech, peaceful assembly, and press freedom within Pakistan.
In response to a congressman's assertive questioning about allegations of
widespread rigging and the imprisonment of PTI leadership and supporters, Donald
Lu maintained a composed demeanor and emphasized the US stance of non-
interference in the internal judicial processes of other countries. He reiterated that
both governments would proceed according to established diplomatic protocols
and practices, indicating that the US Ambassador may or not meet with the
imprisoned PTI Chairman.
Regarding allegations of US involvement in regime change and the Cipher scandal,
Lu denied any direct involvement and dismissed the Cipher allegations as baseless.
He contradicted statements made by Pakistan's former DG-ISPR, asserting that the
Cipher was not a reality. While acknowledging the presence of service chiefs at the
National Security Council meeting, he refrained from characterizing it as a
conspiracy to overthrow the government, instead labeling it as blatant interference
in Pakistan's internal affairs.
Moreover, there are indications that Pakistan may witness increased investment
from private US companies across various sectors. This potential influx of
investment signals a deepening cooperation between the US and Pakistan,
particularly in the installation of alternative energy generation methods. Such
collaboration serves two primary objectives: first, to reduce Pakistan's dependence
on China and offer viable alternatives to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor
(CPEC); and second, to provide alternative energy solutions that may prompt
Pakistan to reconsider its decision to proceed with the long-pending Iran-Pakistan
pipeline.
I bear witness to the historic signing and commencement ceremony of the Iran-
Pakistan pipeline, where President Zardari, on the final day of his first presidential
tenure, journeyed to the Iranian border. There, amidst the welding of two massive
pipes symbolizing a pivotal moment of cooperation between Iran and Pakistan,
President Zardari addressed the gathering. He highlighted the persistent opposition
from the United States to the gas pipeline, despite Pakistan's invitation for
collaboration in addressing its energy challenges. In the absence of any viable
alternative proposed by the US, President Zardari emphasized the paramount
importance of prioritizing the nation's interests. Thus, he took the decision to
proceed with signing the agreement, recognizing its immense potential to alleviate
Pakistan's energy woes and provide cost-effective gas to households and industries.
However, subsequent governments, notably the PML(N) administration from 2013
to 2018 and Imran Khan's government from 2018 to 2022, succumbed to pressure
from the United States and were unable to advance this critical project. It wasn't
until the tenure of the new government led by Shahbaz Sharif, bolstered by support
from the armed forces leadership, that the decision was made to push forward with
the construction of the Pakistani segment of the pipeline.
The Iran-Pakistan pipeline, also referred to as the IP Gas Pipeline or the Peace
Pipeline, is poised to transmit 750 million cubic meters of natural gas from Iran's
South Pars Gas field to Pakistan. This significant infrastructure project promises to
provide Pakistan with a stable and reliable energy source, effectively alleviating
the strain on the country's energy grid. Given Pakistan's chronic energy shortages,
characterized by frequent power outages that hinder economic growth and
development, the pipeline's implementation holds immense potential for addressing
these longstanding challenges.
Furthermore, access to Iranian natural gas is poised to play a pivotal role in
satisfying Pakistan's escalating energy demands, particularly within vital sectors
such as power generation, industrial manufacturing, and residential heating. This
infusion of energy resources has the potential to catalyze economic growth, attract
foreign investment, and elevate the overall standard of living for Pakistan's
populace.
However, the effectiveness of the US in offering viable alternatives to address
Pakistan's chronic energy shortages, including shortages of natural gas and
electricity, remains uncertain. The extent to which the US is willing to implement
its plans, if any, and its success in providing equal or superior alternatives to the
Iranian pipeline, are yet to be determined. It remains to be seen how quickly and
efficiently the US can deploy alternative solutions to meet Pakistan's energy needs
and whether these alternatives can offer comparable or improved benefits
compared to the Iranian pipeline.
Donald Lu's testimony before the Congress sub-committee marked a significant
milestone in Pak-US relations. The US approach towards Pakistan appeared
positive, pragmatic, and supportive, albeit with underlying concerns regarding
projects like CPEC and the Iran-Pakistan pipeline, as well as the repatriation of
Afghan aliens. However, the tone conveyed during the testimony was not coercive;
instead, it hinted at a willingness to offer Pakistan better and more effective
alternative solutions to these issues, without explicitly forcing Pakistan to abandon
its pursuits.
This testimony served as a promising development for the government of Shahbaz
Sharif, signaling US endorsement of armed forces support for the government's
developmental endeavors. Conversely, it also implied a clear message to the PTI
and its chairman that they should not rely on US support in pursuit of their
objectives. It now falls upon the government of Pakistan to capitalize on this
newfound positive stance of the US and leverage it to advance
