By Qamar Bashir
Shahbaz Sharif, who today took oath for the second time as the country’s 25th Prime Minister amid looming financial and economic challenges, stands out as a rare example of unwavering loyalty to his elder brother, Mr. Nawaz Sharif. Despite numerous offers of the premiership by various army chiefs, including Musharraf, in exchange for shifting his allegiance, Shahbaz Sharif’s loyalty has remained
steadfast. His resolve has never wavered, and no amount of wealth, power, or worldly riches has been able to weaken his deep-seated love, respect, and allegiance to his brother, though both are diametrically opposite on ideological considerations and philosophically bent of mind.
Shahbaz Sharif demonstrated his unwavering loyalty when he was directed by Nawaz Sharif to assume the role of Prime Minister in a coalition government in April 2022. Despite knowing that accepting the premiership at that tumultuous time, with the ousted Prime Minister Imran Khan enjoying immense popularity and leading widespread public protests against his removal, would be an immense
challenge, Shahbaz Sharif did not falter. He held his fort amid long marches, large
rallies, numerous sit-ins, drawing unprecedented crowds that exerted immense
pressure on the country's administrations.
Many, including myself, have pondered whether Nawaz Sharif would have
accepted the premiership under such challenging circumstances in April 2022,
given the country's financial, economic woes, assertive establishment and high
degree of political uncertainty . It's likely that the response from readers and
myself would lean towards a resounding "no." This raises a critical question: why
did Nawaz Sharif instruct his loyal brother to assume the premiership in such
trying times.
Once Shahbaz Sharif assumed office as Prime Minister in April 2022, his primary
objective was to secure the return of Nawaz Sharif to Pakistan without facing any
risks. In pursuit of this goal, Shahbaz Sharif made significant concessions to the
military establishment, compromising civilian powers in the process. Notably, he
enacted the Pakistan Army (Amendment) Bill 2023, which granted full legal status
to the military's extensive business interests, criminalized criticism of the armed
forces, and authorized them to engage in activities related to national development
and strategic interests. Additionally, the Official Secrets (Amendment) Bill 2023
was passed, granting security agencies broad discretionary powers to arrest
individuals deemed threatening. The legislation also prohibited approaches to
military installations and offices, with suspects subject to trial in military courts.
Furthermore, Shahbaz Sharif's administration appointed numerous military officers
to sensitive civilian positions, including Chairman NADRA, Chairman NAB, and
Chairman PTA. By October 2023, reports indicated that over 1,000 military
officers, including 104 serving and retired Lieutenant Generals and Major
Generals, had been placed in civilian roles across various ministries, divisions, and
Pakistan's diplomatic missions abroad.
By capitulating critical and sensitive positions of the country and granting
unparalleled powers to the military, Shahbaz Sharif fulfilled his end of the deal. In
return, the establishment facilitated Nawaz Sharif's return to Pakistan under VVIP
status, despite being a declared absconder and convicted criminal, previously
disqualified from holding public office.
Upon Nawaz Sharif's return, the establishment swiftly resolved all legal cases
against him, including the disappearance of his prison sentence and
disqualification. The stage seemed set for Nawaz Sharif's potential fourth term as
Prime Minister. However, it appears that either bringing Nawaz Sharif back to
power was not part of the deal, or the establishment reneged on their agreement
with the PML(N).
In Scenario C of the article titled "Will Nawaz’s hopes die down soon?" published
on December 10th, 2023, it was concluded that based on past bitter experiences
with Nawaz, the Establishment would never bring back Nawaz Sharif as the Prime
Minister. The scenario suggested that to navigate resistance and controversies
surrounding Nawaz Sharif’s leadership, the Establishment might orchestrate
conditions during pre-poll and after poll 2024, where Nawaz will have no choice
but to abdicate power in favor of his brother, Shahbaz Sharif.
In pursuit of this strategy, the results of the 2024 elections were orchestrated in a
manner that significantly undermined Nawaz Sharif's electoral prospects. Nawaz
suffered a decisive defeat, losing one seat by a significant margin and barely
managing to secure a victory in Lahore, a stronghold contested fiercely by his rival
candidate. In contrast, Shahbaz Sharif emerged victorious in all his contested seats,
clearly indicating the establishment's preference for him as the chosen candidate.
Nawaz Sharif, who had set securing a simple majority in the parliament as the
single most important condition to assume the premiership for the fourth time,
found himself demoralized and humiliated by the election outcome. His hopes,
pinned on assurances from the establishment, were dashed, leaving him feeling
betrayed and dejected.
As predicted in the article, Nawaz Sharif found himself with no choice but to
relinquish the premiership in favor of his younger brother. This raises an important
question: why did Nawaz Sharif believe that something unfavorable for himself
would be beneficial for his brother? Upon closer examination, the answer lies in
Nawaz's uncompromising nature, which, at times, becomes his biggest liability,
and Shahbaz's compromising nature, which, conversely, becomes his biggest asset.
Nawaz Sharif is characterized by his unwavering commitment to freedom of
thought and action, refusing to succumb to pressures and intimidation until his
limit is reached. When pushed beyond this threshold, he responds with a
vengeance, disregarding potential consequences. He possesses a strong vision and
dedication to a specific ideology, particularly in promoting democratic values.
Since the 1990s, Nawaz Sharif has emerged as a formidable challenger to the
dominance of the military establishment in Pakistan. He has actively pursued
policies aimed at curbing the military's influence, including efforts to assert
civilian control over intelligence agencies and challenge the military's dominance
in national security decision-making. Despite facing threats, intimidation, and
periods of exile, Nawaz Sharif has remained steadfast in his commitment to
advancing civilian authority and democratic principles. His resilience in the face of
adversity underscores his determination to uphold fundamental values and
principles in Pakistani politics.
In contrast, Shahbaz Sharif's with his pragmatic approach to governance, often
necessitating compromises with various stakeholders, including the military
establishment and coalition partners. He willingly engaged with the establishment
leading to perceptions of accommodation and compromise with the military,
especially during periods of political turbulence or when facing pressure from
powerful institutions. He has at times adjusted his positions and policies to
accommodate the demands of coalition partners, even if it meant making
concessions on certain issues even at the expense of ideological purity and
principles and the integrity of governance or undermined democratic norms.
Nawaz Sharif, as the elder brother, may have come to the realization more than
anyone else that his prolonged periods of exile have disconnected him not only
from his voter base but also from any lasting favor within the establishment. He
may have recognized that his ideological and visionary approach to politics has
been overshadowed by the tactical compromises of his younger brother, Shahbaz
Sharif, and the theatrics orchestrated by his daughter, Maryam Nawaz, and her
inner circle. In this political landscape, his close associates such as Khaqqan
Abbasi, Mufta Ismael, Mohammad Zubair, Asif Kirmani, Danyal Aziz, Khawaja
Asif, and Khawaja Saad Rafique find themselves marginalized, with little
influence or relevance.
