By Qamar Bashir
Deeply concealed within the labyrinth of the US Embassy’s website lies the US Integrated Country Strategy (ICS) for Pakistan, a document unearthed by a speaker at a round table conference hosted by the Pakistan Institute of Strategic Studies.
This paper, dissected during the conference, delineates the fundamental priorities and objectives of US involvement with Pakistan spanning 2023-2027. It delineates crucial areas including combatting terrorism and violent extremism, advancing regional stability, integration, and security, fostering inclusive economic growth
and sustainable development, alongside strengthening civilian democratic
institutions and safeguarding human rights.
The timing of this conference held significant meaning, coinciding with the visit of
Pakistan's Chief of Army Staff, General Asim Munir, to the US, where he engaged
in meetings with top US leadership. The visit strategically aligned with a
reprimand aimed at India, reflecting US discontent regarding the killing of Sikh
political activists by alleged rogue agents of India's Research and Analysis Wing
(RAW), first in Canada and later in the US. The visit also resulted in an official
rejection of an invitation extended by Indian Prime Minister Modi to President
Biden to attend India's Republic Day, an event that has now been diminished due
to Biden's adamant refusal to participate. This development is perceived as a
significant setback for India, which, without legitimate grounds, is endeavoring to
position itself as a major global power.
The army chief's visit is perceived as a crucial step toward rebuilding and
fortifying trust and cooperation between Pakistan and the US. However, the
success of this visit hinges on tangible agreements forged and the willingness of
both sides to address longstanding issues of mutual concern, which may carry
different connotations for Pakistan and the US. The stated objectives of the visit
encompass strengthening military ties, bilateral defense cooperation discussions,
intelligence sharing on regional security threats, and exploring avenues for
potential collaboration.
Pakistan seeks US support in countering threats from groups like Tehreek-e-
Taliban Pakistan (TTP) in Afghanistan, while emphasizing economic cooperation
and seeking assistance for its ongoing economic challenges. Urging a more
constructive US role in stabilizing Afghanistan, discussions focus on countering
regional threats and exploring investment and trade opportunities between both
nations.
Discussions are likely to cover contentious issues straining relations between
Pakistan and the USA, including the forced repatriation of Afghan refugees,
Pakistan’s relations with Afghan Interim Government, Kashmir issue, China
Pakistan relations with emphasize on CPEC, engaging IMF, World Bank and
International Financial Institutions, Russian Ukraine conflict,
. The US has vehemently opposed this, citing concerns about the refugees' safety
and well-being. Stressing Afghanistan's instability and potential human rights
violations, the US highlights Pakistan's obligations under international law to
protect those seeking asylum. It firmly opposes the forced return of refugees, citing
potential violations of international commitments.
The US holds deep suspicions regarding Pakistan's alleged support for the
Taliban’s interim government. Moreover, the US has voiced concerns about
Pakistan's perceived lack of transparency and mistrust, casting doubt on its
sincerity and the effectiveness of its cooperation.
Pakistan is engaging the Talibans' interim government aiming for a cooperative
relationship that prioritizes mutual interests, seeking moderation from the Taliban
while averting Afghanistan's transformation into an extremist breeding ground.
The stance remains dynamic, navigating complexities while emphasizing stability,
human rights, and bilateral concerns in this evolving Afghan landscape.
Despite varying priorities and mutual distrust, the US must rely on Pakistan's
declared Afghanistan policy and seek active cooperation. This collaboration aims
to prevent militant and weapon movement across the porous Pakistan-Afghanistan
border, leveraging Pakistan's historical ties and economic influence to influence the
Taliban positively. Additionally, the US seeks insights into Taliban activities and
intentions, particularly concerning terrorist threats, aiming to promote regional
cooperation and prevent Afghanistan from becoming a source of instability in
South Asia.
The Kashmir issue has long been a delicate and intricate matter for the US
focusing on fostering dialogue and diplomacy between India and Pakistan,
advocating for peaceful resolutions of outstanding issues especially Kashmir. The
stance underscores non-interference in internal affairs, recognizing Kashmir as a
bilateral matter between India and Pakistan, refraining from taking a specific legal
position or advocating for predefined solutions.
Pakistan's Kashmir expectations from the US are a mixed bag. They crave
acknowledgement of the issue's international dimension, US-mediated dialogue,
advocacy for Kashmiri self-determination, human rights pressure on India, and a
balanced portrayal of the conflict. Neutrality, deep engagement with Pakistan, and
action beyond just listening to India are also key. In essence, Pakistan wants the
US to be a proactive and constructive player in resolving Kashmir peacefully,
respecting Pakistani concerns, and seeking a lasting solution.
The US stance regarding Chinese involvement in Pakistan, particularly through
initiatives like CPEC and military collaborations, is marked by apprehensions. It
sees Chinese increasingly influence in Pakistan as challenges to US interests in the
region, including Afghanistan and maritime security; worries about unsustainable
debt and opaque financing within CPEC projects; unease about Pakistan's
deepening military ties with China and the potential transfer of sensitive
technology with potential military applications; and the perceived threat of
upsetting the regional balance of power, possibly leading to instability. The US
emphasizes the importance of transparency in CPEC contracts, encourages
diversification of foreign partnerships to prevent overreliance on any single nation.
Pakistan's state policy toward Chinese relations and the China-Pakistan Economic
Corridor (CPEC) centers on fostering a robust strategic partnership with China
while maximizing the transformative potential of CPEC for national development.
This policy underscores the depth of the Pakistan-China alliance, prioritizing
mutual support on core issues while harnessing CPEC's economic promise.
Embracing CPEC as a game-changer, Pakistan positions it as pivotal for economic
growth, job creation, and regional connectivity, emphasizing responsible
management to safeguard national interests. Additionally, Pakistan aims for a
balanced foreign policy, cultivating relations beyond China while nurturing
cultural ties and remaining adaptable to evolving global dynamics.
The US wields significant influence over International Financial Institutions (IFIs),
positioning them as potential tools to nudge Pakistan towards aligning with its
strategic objectives. Through its sway over these institutions like the World Bank
and IMF, the US prioritizes projects beneficial to its goals—such as regional
connectivity and counterterrorism initiatives—compelling Pakistan to cooperate in
securing vital funding.
Furthermore, the US holds the power to impact Pakistan's global standing by
leveraging assessments of creditworthiness and economic stability from IFIs. A
negative evaluation could hinder foreign investment and access to credit markets,
pressuring Pakistan to comply with US demands to avert potential economic
isolation. Beyond financial clout, the US exercises soft power through leadership
roles in IFIs, subtly influencing policy discussions, advocating its values, and
diplomatically pressuring nations like Pakistan.
Pakistan's expectations from the US regarding engagement with International
Financial Institutions (IFIs) like the IMF and World Bank revolve around seeking
assistance devoid of stringent conditionalities or obligations. This encompasses
favorable loan terms with lower interest rates and extended repayment periods,
enabling economic reforms without hindering sustainable development.
Additionally, Pakistan seeks technical expertise in critical areas, aiming for
institutional strengthening and capacity building to manage debt responsibly and
implement effective reforms. Moreover, it anticipates the US to advocate within
IFIs for its development goals and international trade agenda, while also seeking
public recognition of its progress, without attaching any strings or obligations to
the support provided.
The US holds nuanced expectations from Pakistan regarding its stance on the
Russia-Ukraine conflict. Primarily, the US urges Pakistan to publicly condemn
Russia's invasion while reducing military ties, supporting humanitarian aid efforts,
and diplomatically pressuring for a peaceful resolution. Additionally, countering
Russian disinformation is expected. Recent but confirmed and unsubstantiated
reports suggest that Pakistan might be providing non-lethal military assistance to
Ukraine, potentially due to increased US pressures.
Pakistan's official stance on the Russia-Ukraine conflict embodies a nuanced
approach that has evolved over time. Notably, Pakistan has consistently abstained
from UN resolutions condemning Russia's actions, underscoring its pursuit of a
diplomatic resolution. Emphasizing dialogue and diplomacy, Pakistan urges direct
engagement between Russia and Ukraine while advocating for the importance of
respecting international law and territorial integrity without explicitly condemning
the invasion. Additionally, Pakistan expresses concern for the humanitarian crisis
resulting from the conflict and calls for unimpeded access to humanitarian aid to
address the escalating situation.
USA expectation from Pakistan on Israel-Hamas conflict would be hands off or to
support Israel in the ongoing Israel Hamas Standoff, whereas Pakistan expressed
its unwavering commitment to supporting the Palestinian cause declaring that
Pakistan has no intention to send troops to Palestine and expressing grave concerns
about the ongoing humanitarian crisis infringed by Israel in Gaza advocating
ceasefire and restoration of international aid.
In conclusion, the Army chief inaugural visit to the USA is of paramount
importance. With his pragmatic approach, he will be fostering convergence rather
than divergence of views and strategies between Pakistan and the USA which are
pivotal for the advancement of Pakistan's progress, regional stability, and global
peace and development. He will Find common ground with objectives regarding
security, economic growth, regional stability, and humanitarian concerns for
mutual prosperity.
It goes without saying that aligning efforts, addressing differences, and cultivating
cooperation stand as fundamental pillars for a constructive partnership that not
only benefits both nations but also contributes significantly to fostering peace and
progress in the region and beyond.
Through shared objectives and collaborative endeavors, Pakistan and the USA can
pave the way for a more stable, prosperous, and peaceful future, both domestically and on the global stage.
