By:Qamar Bashir
As per a recent report by the BBC, a violent confrontation between law enforcement officials and demonstrators resulted in the loss of 25 lives and left 500 individuals wounded. The unrest was sparked by the detention of Imran Khan, which led to widespread protests across the country.
According to certain reports, the figures quoted are even higher, which is undoubtedly unfortunate. In the aftermath of recent events, a number of government buildings have been reported as damaged or destroyed. Additionally, numerous businesses have been subject to looting and burning, resulting in significant losses for their owners. Public transport has also been disrupted, with several vehicles being torched in the process.
The extent of the damage caused by these events is still being assessed, but it is clear that the impact on the affected communities is significant.
According to recent media reports, the violent outbreak has caused extensive damage to roads, bridges, and buildings throughout the country. According to official estimates, the reparation expenses for the damage incurred could amount to a staggering $1 billion. As per government estimates, the cost of business disruption could potentially reach a staggering $2 billion. Pakistan's efforts to attract foreign investment and loss to the country's image as a secure destination for conducting business has caused financial loss of further $4 billion.
The violence has had a profound legal, political, economic, and law and order impact. Legally, the government has been accused of repressing opposition with excessive force, and there have been demands for an independent investigation into the violence. It has been chastised for how it handled the protests, which resulted in the deaths of numerous people and the destruction of property. The violence has further polarised Pakistan's political scene, widening the gap between Imran Khan supporters and the current government. The violence has also harmed the government's prestige and created concerns about its capacity to govern successfully. The economic impact of the violence on Pakistan has been detrimental. The tourism industry has been heavily damaged. In terms of law and order, the government has been unable to retain control of the streets, and there is a rising sense of lawlessness, which has resulted in an increase in crime and made it more difficult for people to live safely.
The belligerent and vengeful behavior of the government reflects its lack of will and determination to ensure political stability and improve the law and order situation, which is critical for financial and economic stability. It appeared to have only one agenda: to imprison Imran Khan and postpone the elections, regardless of the cost to them, the country, or the unfortunate people. They appeared to be completely unaware of the latest bleak image depicted by the International Monitoring Funds (IMF), which was published on May 12, 2023.
The research identified major problems such as a large budget deficit, a large current account deficit, high inflation, a large public debt, a weak financial sector, and a shaky security situation. It stated that the administration failed to maintain the 6% GDP growth rate reached in 2021-22, which has now been reduced to 0.5% in 2023, but when the high inflation rate of 27.1% is considered in, the real DGP growth is -31.9%, according to the calculation. Real GDP = 0.5% nominal / (1 + 27.1% inflation) = -31.9%. Assume that the nominal GDP of Pakistan in 2022 is 100 million Pakistani rupees (PKR). The nominal GDP in 2023 is 100.5 million PKR, representing a 0.5% rise. In 2023, however, the inflation rate is 27.1%.
This translates to a 27.1% increase in the cost of goods and services. As a result, the real value of goods and services produced in 2023
is lower than that of goods and services produced in 2022. In this situation, real GDP in 2023 is 68.1 million PKR, a reduction of 31.9% from real GDP in 2022.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has also predicted that Pakistan's current account deficit will rise to $19.4 billion in 2023, up from $18.25 billion in 2022. The IMF also forecasts that Pakistan's budget deficit will rise to 4.9% of GDP in 2023, up from 4.1% in 2022. The public debt is anticipated to rise to 90.5% of GDP in 2023, up from 86.6% in 2022, which is quite concerning.
To make matters worse, the government has blocked internet access, causing another enormous shock to the economy, which is already in critical condition. It has caused commercial disruptions, made it difficult for individuals to work, and discouraged investment. The companies are unable to accept orders, handle payments, or connect with customers and suppliers. This might result in a loss of sales, revenue, and productivity. Workers are unable to work from home or have access to the information and resources they require to conduct their jobs. This can result in decreased productivity and wages.
The big question is whether the government is capable of carrying out the people's mandate. The people entrust the government with the power of enacting and enforcing laws, protecting people from crime and violence, providing social services such as education, healthcare, and job opportunities, fostering economic growth by creating a favorable environment for businesses to operate by investing in infrastructure, education, and research and development, lowering taxes to encourage businesses to invest and create jobs, and managing debt responsibly to
avoid a financial crisis in order to create a safe haven. However, it appears that the government has failed on all fronts. The financial and economic situation is bleak.
Law and order is worse than it has ever been, and political and social turmoil is at an all-time high. All institutions, including the government, parliament, court, and army, have lost their former dignity and honour. However, instead of taking steps to lower the political temperature and send signals of reconciliation and negotiation to pacify the charged atmosphere in order to get space time and focus to fulfill its mandate, the entire government, from the prime minister to the information minister, is hellbent on adding fuel to the fire spewed venom and fire against their formidable political rival Imran Khan and the judiciary. The Prime Minister spewed venom against the judiciary and Imran Khan, infuriating the lawyer community and Imran Khan's supporters. The Information Minister even threatened the judges to burn their houses if they continued to dispensing justice allegedly in favor of Imran Khan, and the entire PDM leadership decided to stage a sit-in in front of the Supreme Court, threatening that any attempt to stop them would be rebutted with equal force, in the same’manner and intensity, thereby raising concerns of increasing the political temperature and paving the way for further violence and deteriorated law and order
situation giving another jolt to the fragile and dying economy.
In the face of the challenges that we are currently experiencing, it is imperative that the government takes decisive action to address them. There are various steps that can be taken to mitigate the effects of these challenges and ensure that the country remains on a stable footing. One of the first things that the government should do is to provide support to those who have been most affected by the violence. This
could include financial assistance, providing free of cost treatment to the injured, releasing all the detainees and political leaders, take tangible and meaningful steps to address the root causes of anger and frustration driving protests, engaging in dialogue with political rivals leaders and making concessions to government policy or operations. It is crucial to demonstrate a commitment to listening to the people and building trust to achieve a lasting solution. Additionally, improving the economy and financial outlook of the country can create a more stable society and
reduce the likelihood of future protests.
These actions would send a powerful message to stakeholders, and suffering citizens. It could pave the path for peace to be established, giving the government the much-needed breathing room to improve governance, bring reforms and revive the economy and provide relief to the people.
