DOHA-UNS: In light of the escalating Israeli attacks across the Middle East, particularly the recent threats of further attacks, Qatar is reportedly seriously considering joining the recently signed Strategic Defense Agreement (SMDA) between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia. This move, if confirmed, would represent a significant shift in the dynamics of Gulf security, contributing to a broader Islamic defense architecture beyond the traditional framework of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC).
Background: Pakistan-Saudi Joint Strategic Defense Agreement
On September 17, 2025, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia formally signed their first joint strategic defense agreement, under which any aggression against either country is treated as an aggression against both.
Pakistani officials have repeatedly emphasized that the agreement is defensive in nature and is not directed against any third country.
Defense Minister Khawaja Asif and Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar have left the door open to the possibility of other Arab or Islamic countries joining Pakistan or concluding similar defense agreements with them.
However, no formal steps toward expansion have been announced yet.
Why Qatar is considering joining – Strategic Motives
Growing Insecurity Due to Israeli Strikes
Israel’s recent targeting of Doha has shaken Gulf states’ confidence in existing deterrence. The attack on a Gulf capital underscores that even non-hostile regional actors can be subject to airstrikes, increasing the appeal of collective defense arrangements.
Diversifying Security Partnerships
Gulf states may view the traditional US security umbrella as less reliable, given the United States’ difficulty in curbing Israeli actions. An alliance with Pakistan, a nuclear-armed state with a long-standing military credentials, provides Qatar with an alternative deterrent.
Ideological and Islamic Solidarity
The Pakistani-Saudi partnership is largely based on themes of Islamic unity, the defense of Islamic lands, and the protection of holy sites. Qatar may view its entry as a sign of stronger solidarity in the strategic arena of the Islamic world.
Border Protection and Air Defense Enhancement
Qatar’s strategic vulnerabilities, including limited depth and proximity to potential conflict zones, would enhance its security if protected by a broader multilateral deterrence agreement.
Challenges and Constraints
Sovereign Interests and Independence
Delicate negotiations are required to ensure Qatar retains its sovereignty over decisions regarding military responses, rules of engagement, and force deployments.
Alignment of Threat Perceptions
Pakistani and Saudi approaches must align with Qatar’s threat perceptions—for example, whether an Israeli strike on Qatar should be considered an automatic activation of the SMDA.
Reactions of Foreign Powers
The entry of Qatar—which hosts U.S. military installations and maintains diplomatic relations with Israel—could provoke a reaction from Washington, threatening to strain U.S.-Qatar relations.
Operational Integration and Command and Control
Joint defense commitments will require interoperability between forces, command structures, and communications systems, an indispensable logistical, technical, and doctrinal challenge.
Diplomatic Balances with Iran and Others
Qatar has long maintained balanced relations with Iran, the United States, and other actors. Formalizing an aggressive security posture could complicate its role as a mediator in regional conflicts.
Observer Reactions and Geopolitical Impact
Analysts view the Pakistan-Saudi Joint Defense Agreement as a turning point in the realignment of regional alliances, potentially encouraging similar agreements between other Muslim countries.
Some commentary suggests that the GCC states may accelerate their efforts to “activate” a joint Gulf defense mechanism.
India has taken note: While expressing hope that its relations with Saudi Arabia will remain intact, New Delhi is analyzing the security implications of expanding this model to other Gulf states.
What to Watch Next
Official Statements from Doha – The Qatari government is likely to issue a public position only after internal deliberations.
Draft Protocols or Memoranda of Understanding – Preliminary memoranda may precede formal accession to the treaty.
Integration of defense capabilities—joint exercises, sharing of airspace, and coordination of logistics—are early indicators of operational commitment.
Third-party reactions—from the United States, Iran, and Israel—would include diplomatic pressure to prevent or constrain Qatar’s move.
Conclusion: At present, the idea of Qatar joining the Saudi-Pakistani defense alliance remains speculative, albeit supported by credible strategic motives. The decision and its form will depend on Qatar’s assessment of its security needs, diplomatic constraints, and the willingness of Pakistan and Saudi Arabia to adapt the framework for expansion.
