By Qamar Bashir
Pakistan’s geopolitical trajectory has been deeply intertwined with the interests of superpowers since its inception. Positioned as a frontline state during the Cold War, Pakistan found itself at the epicenter of the ideological battle between communism and capitalism. Opting for the latter, Pakistan forged significant alliances with the United States and its allies through agreements such as SEATO
and CENTO, positioning itself in direct opposition to the Soviet Union. This geopolitical alignment exposed Pakistan to intense regional tensions, exacerbated by the infiltration of communist ideology within its society.
The resulting confrontation between the state and socialist elements contributed to significant internal strife, further compounded by periods of dictatorship and political discord. This turbulent backdrop ultimately led to three devastating wars, draining Pakistan's precious resources that could have otherwise been allocated to the nation’s growth and development. Additionally, the culmination of these conflicts resulted in the secession of East Pakistan, giving rise to the independent state of Bangladesh.
In the late seventies and eighties, Pakistan grappled with a tumultuous period
marked by social, cultural, religious, and political upheaval. This era was
characterized by a double jeopardy scenario: on one hand, the USSR's expansionist
ambitions led to the subjugation of Afghanistan, bringing Soviet forces
dangerously close to Pakistan's borders. Simultaneously, Pakistan endured the
imposition of another dictatorship, which sought to instill jihadist fervor within the
populace, fostering a climate conducive to waging jihad against the USSR in
Afghanistan and later against India in Indian Illegally Occupied Jammu and
Kashmir.
The influx of Afghan refugees, coupled with the presence of die-hard elements
from foreign intelligence agencies and armed forces, transformed Pakistan into a
battleground of ideologies, low-intensity operations, psychological warfare, and
overt and covert operations across the nation. Among the Baloch population,
grappling with abject poverty, the allure of communist ideology served as a
catalyst for the emergence of the Baloch insurgency, particularly along the borders
with Iran's Balochistan and Sistan provinces. This insurgency led to cross-border
movements of Baloch insurgents, sparking tensions with Iran.
The sour relations with India at one hand, and Iran on the other hand finally
culminated in surgical strikes by India inside Pakistan on 26th Feb, 2019 allegedly
targeting terrorist hideouts, with no consequence and Iranian missile and drone
attacks inside Pakistan’s Balochistan province on 16 January 2024, claiming that it
had targeted the Iranian Baloch militant group Jaish ul-Adl.
In response to India's miscalculated and non-professional strikes, which resulted in
minimal damage, Pakistan's armed forces demonstrated exceptional precision,
control, and professionalism in their strategic operations. Employing surgical
precision, they locked the high-value industrial and military assets deep inside
India, disengaged and unloaded their load away from them ensuring minimal
collateral damage while maximizing effectiveness. This strategic execution not
only took India by surprise but also garnered international recognition for
Pakistan's adept military capabilities.
In contrast to India's anticipated surgical strikes, Iran's missile and drone attacks
inside Pakistani territory resulted in civilian casualties, eliciting shock from both
civilian and military leadership in Pakistan and drawing international attention.
Responding swiftly, Pakistan's armed forces executed precise and targeted
counterattacks, effectively neutralizing high-value terrorists sheltered within Iran
while safeguarding civilians from harm.
Much like India's experience, Iran also gleaned a valuable lesson: the repercussions
of provoking Pakistan's armed forces. These incidents highlight the imperative of
dialogue, diplomacy, and restraint in de-escalating cross-border tensions. They
reaffirm Pakistan's dedication to protecting its citizens and territorial integrity
while promoting regional stability through peaceful resolution of disputes.
In the late 1990s and early 2000s, Pakistan found itself thrust into the global
spotlight once again, this time in the fight against a new adversary: Al-Qaeda. This
stateless terrorist organization, adept at recruiting volunteers and jihadists from
various regions, including the Swat Valley, Pashtun belt, and other parts of the
country, posed a significant threat. Initially supported and armed to combat the
Soviet Union, Al-Qaeda shifted its focus to the United States, leveraging its
newfound power, influence, and vast military and financial resources.
Following the devastating coordinated attacks orchestrated by Al-Qaeda on iconic
symbols of American power, including the destruction of the Twin Towers and an
attack on the Pentagon, the United States was driven to a state of fury. In response,
the U.S. issued a stark ultimatum, threatening to bomb Pakistan into the Stone Age
unless it collaborated in the fight against Al-Qaeda and the Taliban government in
Afghanistan, which provided sanctuary to extremists.
Consequently, Pakistan found itself once again entangled in the affairs of a
superpower. Sensing the urgency to dismantle Al-Qaeda, the U.S. orchestrated a
change in Pakistan's civilian government, replacing it with a military dictator who,
in the subsequent decade, aligned with U.S. objectives. However, this collaboration
came at a price as it drew the ire of Al-Qaeda and its Pakistani affiliates, such as
Tehrik-e-Taliban (TTP), resulting in heightened internal strife and security
challenges for Pakistan.
As a result, Al-Qaeda and Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), steadfast in their
commitment to wage war against the United States, deemed Pakistan a friend of
the U.S. and their staunch enemy. Fueled by access to modern and lethal American
weaponry, TTP militants seized control of the Swat and Buner valleys, imposing
their draconian laws on the populace. The gravity of the situation dawned upon the
Pakistani government and armed forces when TTP forces advanced towards
Islamabad, threatening to impose their version of Shariah nationwide.
In response, Pakistani forces launched a courageous operation, resulting in the
martyrdom of numerous soldiers who valiantly fought against TTP operatives.
While many militants fled across the border to Afghanistan, seeking refuge in safe
havens, the imposition of Taliban rule on 15th August 2021 emboldened these
rogue elements. They became increasingly active, launching cross-border terrorist
attacks within Pakistan, often with support from certain elements within the
Afghan Taliban's administration. Since 2021, TTP attacks have claimed the lives of
over 2000 security personnel and civilians.
In the latest incident on March 16, 2024, a group of suicide bombers targeted a
military checkpoint in Pakistan's North Waziristan district, located in the Khyber
Pakhtunkhwa province neighboring Afghanistan. The attack resulted in the
martyrdom of seven soldiers, which infuriated the armed forces to the extent that
they finally decided to teach TTP a befitting lesson.
The heinous and abhorrent attack prompted the Pakistani armed forces to
undertake precise and intelligence-based anti-terrorist operations within border
regions of Afghanistan as a last resort and killed over eight hard core terrorists
belonging to the Hafiz Gul Bahadur Group, a faction of the Tehrik-e-Taliban
Pakistan (TTP), which had claimed responsibility for numerous terrorist attacks
inside Pakistan.
However, the aftermath of these attacks and counter attacks has cast a shadow
over Pakistan's entire border regions. With borders spanning 559 km with India,
2670 km with Afghanistan, and 959 km with Iran (with the exception of China),
the security situation has intensified dramatically. These border areas, often
insecure and deserted, lack basic infrastructure such as roads, electricity, and gas,
rendering them highly vulnerable and porous. This poses a grave risk to the lives of
border guards and troops stationed there, while logistics and supply provision
become arduous tasks, straining financial and economic resources.
Consequently, Pakistan faces the daunting challenge of allocating significant
financial resources and deploying armed forces to these volatile borders. This
reallocation of resources, predominantly from civilian sectors, to bolster military
capabilities further exacerbates economic strains. The resulting higher inflation and
financial burdens weigh heavily on the common man, already struggling to make
ends meet. Thus, the nation finds itself grappling with multifaceted challenges that
demand prudent management and strategic foresight to navigate through this
turbulent period.
Indeed, the prevailing hostility and perceived security volatility in Pakistan,
regardless of its justification, send shockwaves across the globe. These conditions
instill fear among investors, traders, and businesspersons, deterring them from
engaging with Pakistan. As a result, the country faces additional premiums and
costs associated with investing, trading, and conducting business, further hindering
its economic growth and development.
To address these pressing issues, it is imperative to prioritize intense diplomatic
efforts led by our top diplomats, including the Prime Minister, Foreign Minister,
the foreign ministry and the establishment. This necessitates comprehensive
brainstorming sessions to devise strategic approaches aimed at engaging all
neighbors with transparency, sincerity, and noble intentions. Establishing highly
effective channels of communication, operational 24/7, is crucial for facilitating
dialogue and resolving differences through bilateral or multilateral discussions.
Moreover, it is imperative to develop short-term, medium-term, and long-term
plans to tackle underlying issues comprehensively. Emphasizing mutually
beneficial trade, investment, and business relations can foster dependencies and
overlapping interests across sectors, promoting stability and cooperation.
Additionally, pursuing common interests with neighboring countries is essential, as
it creates a scenario where resorting to kinetic power usage would prove
detrimental to all parties involved.
Additionally, investing in people-to-people exchanges, cultural diplomacy, and
educational initiatives can foster greater understanding and goodwill among
citizens of neighboring countries, laying the foundation for enduring friendships
and constructive engagement at the grassroots level. By adopting a multifaceted
approach that combines diplomatic finesse, economic cooperation, regional
collaboration, and people-centered initiatives, Pakistan can navigate its geopolitical
challenges effectively and chart a course towards a more peaceful and prosperous
