By Qamar Bashir
Amid swirling rumors, concerns, and a charged atmosphere both domestically and internationally, Pakistan is set to conduct its highly contested and controversial 2024 elections amidst significant economic challenges including stagnant growth, acute balance of payment issues, hyperinflation, and high unemployment rates. This election is marked by an unprecedented increase in the active voter base, reaching the milestone of 128 million, over half
the country’s population. This elevates Pakistan to the status of the world’s fifth-largest democracy. With an anticipated 80% voter turnout, the nation demonstrates a strong commitment to the democratic process reflecting the population's strong commitment to the democratic process and their determination to influence their nation's future.
FAFEN in its recent report noted that for the first time, there were more women registered to
vote than men between two election periods of 2018-2024, showcasing significant progress in
gender inclusivity in the electoral process marked by an increase in women's voter registration
by 27%, surpassing the growth in men's registration, which was 17% during the same period.
This has led to a substantial decrease in the gender gap in voter registration from 11.8% in 2018
to 7.7% in 2024.
Recognizing the potential of women voters in the upcoming elections, both PTI and PML(N)
have issued a 'record' number of National Assembly tickets to women, which might further
encourage female voter participation reflecting a broader movement towards gender inclusivity
in Pakistani politics. However, female voter registration and participation in the election process
will depend on various factors, including campaign strategies, voter mobilization efforts, and the
addressing of socio-cultural barriers that have historically limited women's political participation.
As the elections approach, the focus on encouraging and facilitating women's participation in the
democratic process remains crucial for a fair and inclusive electoral outcome.
The elections 2024 being the fourth elections since the era of martial law under Pervez
Musharraf starting with governments of PPP, PML(N), and PTI reflects the evolving political
landscape amidst the pre-election phase, where the PTI faced significant challenges and
allegations of unfair advantages to the PML(N), highlighting underlying challenges in Pakistan's
democratic processes which has been intermittently disrupted by martial laws posing setbacks to
the democratic continuum.
International media, including the Council on Foreign Relations, Al Jazeera, The Diplomat, and
DW, along with the Human Rights Commission of Pakistan and the European Union, have
raised concerns about the 2024 elections in Pakistan, highlighting issues such as "election
engineering," disinformation, extensive media censorship, and state intervention in media
coverage. These reports underscore the restrictive conditions facing political parties, particularly
PTI, whose leadership is significantly constrained, impacting their ability to campaign freely.
Allegations of an uneven playing field, exacerbated by the military's significant political
influence and the barring of key political figures like former Prime Minister Imran Khan, suggest
a contentious electoral environment that may not be free or fair, disadvantageous to certain
parties and undermining the democratic process.
Amid these apprehensions, the choice of political entities to engage rather than opt for boycotts,
delays, or advocate for autocratic solutions underscores a pivotal shift towards deepening
democratic norms indicating a resilient commitment to democratic principles amidst adversity.
This collective resolve of Pakistan's political factions, intellectual community, and citizens
arguably emphasizes the importance of democratic integrity and continuity, effectively curtailing
any attempts by undemocratic elements to impose their agenda, thereby safeguarding the
democratic process and ensuring its resilience against potential disruptions.
PML(N) is running a vigorous campaign, primarily concentrated in central Punjab and Hazara
Division allegedly supported by the state machinery while neglecting other key provinces like
KP, Sindh, and Balochistan. The PML(N) campaign is well-organized and directed by Nawaz
Sharif, with Maryam Nawaz and Shahbaz Sharif providing strong support. Pakistan Tehreek-e-
Insaf (PTI)’s ability to run an effective campaign is highly compromised due to the absence of
its chairman and key leaders, coupled with the lack of its own election symbol. Moreover its
public meetings have completely been blocked on the mainstream media, and as alternative it is
struggling to leverage Social media that too is subjected to planned slow down as and when
required. Meanwhile, the PPP campaign, led by Bilawal Bhutto Zardari with Asif Zardari
making a positive impression, seems to be gaining traction.
In this election season, media outlets, both traditional and social, have been exceptionally active,
providing extensive coverage of the election campaigns. Renowned anchorpersons took to the
streets, engaging with everyday citizens to gauge their electoral preferences. While these
interactions were not scientifically structured, they did unveil some regional inclinations. In
Central Punjab, there seems to be a tilt towards PML(N), with PTI also receiving notable
support. Sindh’s rural areas are predominantly leaning towards PPP, while urban centers show a
preference for MQM. In Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (formerly NWFP), a significant sympathy vote
appears to favor PTI, reflecting the party’s strong foothold in the region. Meanwhile, Balochistan
presents a more diverse picture, with no clear dominance by any national party, indicating a
fragmented political landscape.
Unfortunately there is also a growing belief that mainstream parties are prioritizing forming
provincial governments in the upcoming elections. This stems from the perception that provinces
offer larger budgets, greater decision-making freedom with less scrutiny, and fewer financial
obligations compared to the federal government. The center, conversely, faces stricter oversight,
smaller budgets, and heavier debts, often relying on foreign loans to function, while spending
primarily occurs in the provinces, seemingly without responsibility for loan repayment.
Essentially, parties see provincial power as more lucrative and less accountable, raising concerns
about national priorities and fiscal responsibility.
The crude findings are also supported by According to different surveys, reflecting a close race,
showing leading parties PTI and PML-N neck-and-neck. Economic woes and security concerns
loom large, while Khan's disqualification adds uncertainty. Other parties like PPP hold regional
strongholds.
Based on the discussion, survey reports, and media analysis, the PML-N, led by Nawaz Sharif, is
likely to have a significant advantage in forming the government at the center due to its
established political base and apparent mending of ties with the military, which plays a crucial
role in Pakistan's political landscape. The PTI, despite facing significant challenges including
legal battles, the disqualification of its leader Imran Khan, and issues surrounding its election
symbol, may still manage to retain some influence, particularly in provinces where it has a strong
support base. In Punjab, the competition between PML-N and PTI is expected to be fierce, with
both parties vying for dominance. The political maneuvering and alliances formed in the run-up
to the elections could be key to determining the outcome in this crucial province.
PPP, led by Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, may continue to hold sway in its traditional stronghold of
Sindh but could face challenges expanding its influence beyond this province due to the current
political dynamics and its need to form crucial alliances in Punjab. In Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, PTI
has historically had strong support, but the party's current challenges might impact its
performance in the upcoming elections. Balochistan's political landscape is often more
fragmented, with local parties and alliances playing significant roles. The situation in
Balochistan may remain fluid, with various parties and independent candidates likely to
influence the formation of the provincial government.
Amidst challenges, Pakistan's move towards the 2024 elections epitomizes the nation's resolve to
sustain its democratic ethos. Despite the pre-election phase's uneven playing field and significant
political entities facing hurdles, the unanimous decision against election boycotts or delays
reflects a collective dedication to democratic values. This commitment, coupled with a notable
surge in voter registration highlighting gender inclusivity, underscores the importance of a
transparent, fair electoral process for Pakistan's democratic integrity and future stability. The
forthcoming elections are a critical juncture, symbolizing not just a political transition but a
reaffirmation of Pakistan's democratic journey in the face
