20
By Ahsan Ansari
In a remarkable diplomatic breakthrough, Iran and Israel agreed to a ceasefire on June 24, 2025, after weeks of intense military confrontation that had raised fears of a broader regional war. The ceasefire, brokered by the United States, was announced by President Donald Trump, who declared a “complete and total” halt to hostilities from both sides. According to the agreement, Iran would pause its military operations first, followed by Israel after a twelve-hour delay. The Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, later confirmed Israel’s commitment to the ceasefire, claiming that the country had already achieved its main military objectives during the campaign.
Despite the ceasefire declaration, the situation on the ground remained tense in the initial hours. Several Iranian missiles struck the Israeli city of Beersheba just before and shortly after the ceasefire was supposed to begin. These attacks resulted in the tragic deaths of at least four civilians and injuries to several others. Israel responded swiftly by targeting the launch sites within Iran and issuing a strong warning that any violation of the ceasefire would be met with firm and immediate retaliation. Meanwhile, Iranian officials suggested that their ceasefire pledge was conditional and based on Israel stopping its airstrikes, creating ambiguity about the terms and stability of the truce.
Nevertheless, the ceasefire is widely being seen as a positive development and a hopeful sign for the entire Middle East. After days of violent escalation that threatened to spiral into a full-scale regional conflict, this agreement has provided much-needed relief to millions of people in the region. For the first time in weeks, residents in major cities across Iran and Israel, as well as neighbouring countries, could breathe a little easier, at least temporarily.
The economic impact of the ceasefire was also immediate. Global financial markets responded positively to the news. Crude oil prices, which had surged amid fears of a blockade in the Strait of Hormuz, fell sharply. Brent crude dropped nearly 3% following the announcement, indicating reduced concerns over energy supply disruptions. Air traffic, which had been halted in several countries due to security threats, began to resume, and investors across the world welcomed the de-escalation. The restoration of trade routes and stability in oil markets is particularly crucial for oil-dependent economies in the region, especially Gulf countries like the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar.
Beyond economics, the ceasefire may also serve as a springboard for renewed diplomatic efforts. The fact that two long-time enemies agreed, even temporarily, to halt hostilities underlines the potential for international mediation to play a constructive role in reducing regional tensions. If this truce holds and trust can slowly be built, it may pave the way for further negotiations on more complex and long-standing issues such as Iran’s nuclear program, Israel’s security concerns, and the wider Arab-Israeli conflict. The current moment provides a unique opportunity for regional and international powers to re-engage in meaningful diplomacy.
Neighbouring countries are already beginning to feel the effects of the ceasefire. Lebanon, which had witnessed increased tension due to Hezbollah’s involvement and Israeli cross-border shelling, might now see a reduction in violence. Hezbollah is closely aligned with Iran and often responds to Israeli actions, raising the risk of wider conflict. The pause in fighting between Iran and Israel reduces the pressure on Lebanon’s already fragile political and economic situation.
In Syria, the situation had become increasingly dangerous due to Israeli airstrikes on Iranian assets operating within the country. With the ceasefire in effect, the frequency of such operations may decline, allowing a temporary period of calm for Syrian civilians. In Iraq, where Iran-backed militias had threatened to attack U.S. forces and other targets, the truce offers a chance to de-escalate tensions and focus on domestic governance and reconstruction.
Other neighbouring countries, including Jordan, Turkey, and the Gulf states, also stand to benefit from the reduced risk of a wider war. These countries had been bracing for refugee influxes, economic shocks, and security threats as the Iran-Israel conflict escalated. The ceasefire reduces the immediate pressure and allows these governments to shift their focus toward rebuilding diplomatic and economic ties across the region.
However, challenges remain. The ceasefire is fragile, and both sides remain highly suspicious of each other. The missile attacks that occurred even during the early hours of the truce show that the risk of renewed violence is still very real. Both militaries remain on high alert, and any miscalculation or provocation could reignite hostilities. Additionally, the ceasefire does not address the root causes of the conflict. Iran’s nuclear ambitions, Israel’s regional security strategy, proxy wars across the Middle East, and the unresolved Palestinian question continue to simmer under the surface.
Moreover, regional actors like Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Egypt will be closely watching the next steps. While these countries were not directly involved in the fighting, they are deeply invested in the region’s security landscape. Many of them are wary of Iran’s growing influence and may see the ceasefire as a chance to reassert their own diplomatic roles. On the other hand, any perceived weakness or one-sided victory could also encourage more aggressive posturing in the future.
The United States, having played a central role in brokering the ceasefire, now faces the task of ensuring that it holds. This will require sustained diplomatic engagement, not only with Iran and Israel but also with other regional and international players. Multilateral forums, back-channel communications, and confidence-building measures will be essential to transform this ceasefire from a short-term pause into a longer-term pathway to peace.
The ceasefire between Iran and Israel is more than just a halt to missiles and airstrikes—it is a rare and precious opportunity. It offers a temporary reprieve to civilians, restores some economic stability, and opens a small but important window for peace efforts. Whether this moment leads to lasting change or fades into another missed opportunity will depend on the actions of leaders across the region and the world. For now, the guns have gone quiet, and in a region long plagued by conflict, that in itself is something worth recognizing and building upon.
