UNS: Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s alliance was headed for a narrow majority as vote counting in the general election neared completion on Tuesday, with its tally well short of an expected landslide in a surprise setback for the populist leader.
Modi’s own Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) was falling short of a majority of its own in the 543-member parliament, the trends showed. Having to depend on allies to form the government could introduce some uncertainty into policymaking after a decade in which Modi has ruled with an authoritative hold.
The BJP won a majority on its own in 2014, ending India’s era of unstable coalition governments, and repeated the feat in 2019.
Modi said people had placed their faith in the BJP-led coalition for a third time and it was historic, in his first comments since the counting of votes began.
“The blessings of the people for the third time after 10 years boosts our morale, gives new strength,” Modi told cheering BJP members at party headquarters in New Delhi.
“Our opponents, despite being united, could not even win as many seats as BJP won.”
Promising to work harder and take “big decisions”, Modi listed electronics, semiconductors and defence manufacturing, renewables and the farm sectors as areas of special focus in his third term, without elaborating.
Commentators and exit polls had projected an overwhelming victory for Modi, whose campaign wooed the Hindu majority to the worry of the country’s 200-million-plus Muslim community, deepening concerns over minority rights.
The main opposition Congress party was set to nearly double its parliamentary seats, in a remarkable turnaround largely driven by deals to field single candidates against the BJP’s electoral juggernaut.
With more than 99 per cent of votes counted, the BJP’s vote share at 36.6pc was marginally lower than it was in the last polls in 2019.
Modi was re-elected to his constituency representing the Hindu holy city of Varanasi by a margin of 152,300 votes — compared to nearly half a million votes five years ago.
The election commission figures showed the BJP and its allies on track to win at least 291 seats out of a total of 543, enough for a parliamentary majority.
But the BJP itself had won or was leading in only 240, well down from the 303 it took five years ago, while Congress had won or was ahead in 99, up from 52.
Among the independent lawmakers elected were two serving time in jail — firebrand Sikh separatist preacher Amritpal Singh, and Sheikh Abdul Rashid from Indian-occupied Kashmir, who was arrested on charges of “terror funding” and money laundering in 2019.
The elections for the 18th Lok Sabha, spanning seven phases between April 19 and June 1, amid a scorching heatwave, were finally coming to a close today, as the ballots are counted.
BJP-led bloc, called the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), is leading with 291 seats at 99pc of the vote count
BJP was hoping its alliance would win at least 400 out of the 543 up for grabs
Congress-led alliance, INDIA, has defied predictions and has so far secured 191 seats
Indian stock markets fall nearly 5pc due to uncertainty
Earlier, when only about 10pc-15pc of the total votes had been counted, the opposition INDIA alliance was leading in over 200 seats, higher than expected.
The early see-saw trends unnerved markets with stocks falling steeply. The NIFTY 50 and the S&P BSE Sensex were both down over 2 per cent at 5am GMT. The Indian rupee also fell against the dollar and benchmark bond yields were up.
The markets had soared on Monday after exit polls on June 1 projected Modi and his BJP would register a big victory, with its NDA seen getting a two-thirds majority and more.
The first votes counted were postal ballots, which are paper ballots, mostly cast by troops serving outside their home constituencies or officials away from home on election duty. This year, postal votes were also offered to voters over 85 years of age and people with disabilities to allow them to vote from home.
Counting is expected to last several hours as the large majority of votes polled in electronic voting machines or EVMs are taken up after the first 30 minutes of counting postal ballots.
“These are very early trends, we are going to see better results as the day progresses,” Congress spokesperson Pawan Khera said.
TV exit polls broadcast after voting ended on June 1 projected a big win for Modi, but exit polls have often got election outcomes wrong in India. Nearly one billion people were registered to vote, of which 642 million turned out.
Despite the results so far, Modi claimed victory for a third term in a statement on social media.
“People have placed their faith in NDA for a third consecutive time”, Modi wrote on social media platform X. “This is a historical feat in India’s history.”
Modi said at the weekend he was confident that “the people of India have voted in record numbers” to re-elect his government, a decade after he first became prime minister.
